Keir Starmer has ruled out a U-turn on the government’s decision to cut the winter fuel payment, with the Prime Minister’s spokesman insisting there ‘will not be a change to the government’s policy’. This came after a report in the Guardian suggesting No.10 was considering softening the £1.4 billion cut, possibly by raising the threshold that defines who qualifies as poor enough to receive it.
We can’t keep living in a state totally consumed by propping up its welfare system
That a U-turn was even floated reflects two pressures: disquiet among Labour’s backbenchers, and the electoral warning shot fired by Reform UK in last Thursday’s local elections and by-election. In Runcorn, where Reform won by just six votes, more than 18,000 residents previously received the winter fuel payment. Many within Labour blame the cuts for driving those voters away.
Analysis by The Spectator‘s data hub shows a path for Reform to build on this success. As the graph below illustrates, in constituencies with a high number of Winter Fuel recipients or Personal Independence Payment (PIP) claimants, the electoral margin between Reform and the incumbent narrows significantly compared to last summer’s results.
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