What’s in next week’s budget? Not much, apparently. ‘Cabinet sources’ have been quoted saying that ‘George has been told not to rock the boat’ ahead of the Brexit referendum, and that’s why he backed away from a grab on pension relief for higher earners; likewise he may yield to pressure from his backbenchers not to treat cheap petrol as an opportunity to raise extra fuel duty from motorists. He’ll probably have to talk his way out of a downgrading of growth forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (‘global headwinds’, naturally) and a modest overshoot against his own borrowing targets — but those are the most entertaining parts of Osborne’s speeches.
Expect tax-threshold tinkering to please aspiring middle-earners, and not much more in the way of cuts: as my reader survey last month indicated, the core Tory voters whom Osborne wants to secure for the ‘remain’ side see little or no gain from further public-sector shrinkage. What really matters is what the Chancellor does to boost the small and medium-sized businesses that have been the core of recovery and job-creation throughout this decade so far, which are confused and in some cases traumatised by the Brexit debate (many being members of the British Chambers of Commerce, whose chief has been defenestrated for speaking his mind), and which will shoulder the burden all over again if we head into another economic storm. The overdue review of business rates will be one measure of Osborne’s bona fides; another hike in the Employment Allowance (relief from employers’ National Insurance) would be welcome too.
Comments