Harry J. Kazianis

The next phase of the Ukraine war will be bloody

(Photo: Getty)

The war in Ukraine is about to enter an even deadlier stage, one in which both Kyiv and Moscow will be tempted to apply more and more military might that could even draw in outside powers.

The Battle for Donbas, with another battle raging for what is left of the city of Mariupol, will be a new hell that Europe has not seen since the second world war. It has the potential even to mutate into World War III unless the conflict is brought to a conclusion — and fast.

Why the war in Ukraine is shifting to these critical regions is simple to understand. First, Putin knows he has no chance now of conquering Kyiv or taking over the Ukrainian government unless he is willing to apply so much air, artillery and even weapons of mass destruction that Nato keeps applying more economic pressure with each bomb dropped.

The Battle for Donbas will be a new hell that Europe has not seen since the second world war

Putin gambles that going after Donbas, which he already tried and failed to take in 2014, will be a much more realistic goal, easier to accomplish with shorter supply lines and logistics. It could also give him an opportunity to claim something that looks like a victory.

Mariupol as a strategic target for Putin is also straightforward. Russia can connect Crimea to Donbas and Russia and cut off nearly all of Ukraine from the sea, taking away a vital path of commerce and trade. This would also help Russia dominate the Black Sea region and again give Putin that all-important claim that he won something in this disaster of a war.

But here is where things get tricky. The entire world can see Putin’s forces moving away from Kyiv and re-shifting their military might into eastern Ukraine and to a lesser extent near Mariupol.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe today to get 3 months of unlimited online and app access for only £3.

  • Unlimited access to our website and app
  • Enjoy Spectator newsletters and podcasts
  • Explore our online archive, going back to 1828
Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Want to join the debate?

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first 3 months for just £3.

Already a subscriber? Log in