The Tories aren’t taking the Reform threat seriously enough

The threat to the Tories from Reform is one element of the Conservative party’s unprecedented crisis. The party has lost votes to the right before, but never in a way that has cost them so many seats. As well as picking up five of their own MPs, Reform took Tory votes elsewhere to let Labour through in dozens of seats this summer. Now, Farage’s outfit is looking at making that a permanent threat. 

So far, a big criticism of Reform is that it has been a top-heavy organisation. The party has had money and a Westminster presence but little impact locally. That is changing. Membership is reportedly surging, perhaps even making the party bigger than the Conservatives. In May, Reform will pose a big threat in council and mayoral elections. The slate of elections in 2025 could barely be better suited for an insurgent right pushback against the old guard. 

Reform is also trying to pull away more defecting Tories.