Mark Galeotti Mark Galeotti

The West needs to prepare for guerrilla war in Ukraine

(Photo: Getty)

Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov warned this week that convoys of weapons being sent to Ukraine would be considered legitimate military targets by Russia. It was a deliberately ambiguous and political statement more than anything else, but it is also a useful reminder of the need to think about the potential next phase in the war.

It is still unclear whether the Russians will be able to recover from their unimpressive initial onslaught, but one way or another it seems likely that at least part of Ukraine will end up under Moscow’s control. It also seems pretty certain that Ukrainians behind the lines will not quietly submit, but instead wage a partisan war against the occupiers.

The West has made it pretty clear that it is committed to supporting any such resistance with weapons and other aid. If, as and when that happens, then we need to be considering quite what that will mean.

As far back as 2014 Moscow has demonstrated a willingness to unleash covert mayhem

Ryabkov claimed that ‘pumping Ukraine with weapons from several countries… turns the corresponding convoys into legitimate targets.’ In theory, that could imply cross-border strikes against convoys while they are still on Nato soil, but in reality that seems unlikely. Rather, it presumably means that the Russians would target them while they were on free Ukrainian territory or when they moved into an area Russia has claimed.

In Afghanistan, for example, while the Soviets did launch some incursions into neighbouring Pakistan to try and interdict incoming supplies for the mujahedin rebels, they generally unleashed their Spetsnaz special forces and ‘free hunting’ attack helicopters and aircraft to attack convoys inside the country.

But as far back as 2014, Moscow has demonstrated a willingness to unleash more covert mayhem.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in