Russia’s winter offensive appears to have begun with a decidedly underwhelming series of operations in the Donbas. So far results have ranged from grinding and very costly victories in the towns of Krasna Hora and Soledar, to an outright disaster at Vuhledar where most of Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade was destroyed, and its commanding officer killed, after becoming stuck and then fixed by artillery fire in the middle of recently re-laid Ukrainian minefields.
Meanwhile, a long-running operation by Wagner mercenary troops to take the partially encircled town of Bakhmut continues, and Russian forces are making probing attacks as far north as the Russian border near Kharkiv oblast and as far south as Zaporizhzhia oblast.
For the moment Ukrainian defensive lines are broadly holding, and the limited Russian successes that continue to pile pressure on the almost encircled town of Bakhmut are coming at the cost of heavy casualties. It would be a mistake though for the West to underestimate Russia at this stage of the war.
The key question now is whether the Ukrainian army can hold back Russia’s remaining winter offensive without committing most of the reserve units it has been building up since December. That will, in turn, dictate how many trained formations equipped for mobile armoured warfare will be available for Kyiv’s own counter-offensives in spring and summer.
Nato casualty estimates from early February quoted by the Norwegian Chief of Defence suggest Russia has lost a staggering 180,000 soldiers killed, badly wounded and captured since the start of the invasion, while Ukraine has lost around 100,000 soldiers, with another 30,000 civilians killed.
The ratio of killed Russian soldiers compared to those wounded and captured has also been extraordinarily high compared to normal historical patterns.
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