It’s happened. The scenario Labour politicians hoped would not come to pass is now a reality: Donald Trump is heading back to the White House. The official line from Labour is that everything is fine – they will work with whoever hold the office of president. That was the message from Keir Starmer at Prime Minister’s Questions as he congratulated president-elect Trump, and made a point of mentioning they had recently had dinner together.
However, privately there have long been nerves and concerns as to what a Trump comeback would mean for the Starmer government. It’s already well documented that steps have been taken to try to mitigate the risks. As well as the dinner Starmer and his foreign secretary David Lammy attended, the Foreign Office team has been trying to build relations with various prominent Republicans. Despite Lammy previously leading a protest against Trump being granted a state visit, he has befriended JD Vance. Yet the recent furore from the Trump campaign over Labour sending volunteers to campaign for the Democrats was a reminder of the limits of Labour diplomacy. The Trump campaign branded the current Labour government as far-left.
Labour aides play down the row as Trump campaign tactics rather than a serious rift. Yet there is an acknowledgment across government that his re-election will make a lot of things a bit more difficult.
There have long been nerves and concerns as to what a Trump comeback would mean for the Starmer government
First, the economy. One of the reasons Labour politicians have played down reports of market jitters over the Budget is that they linked rising borrowing costs to general nerves ahead of the US election. With the result now clear, there is a risk that this is more than a short-term blip. If Trump presses on with his threat of a 10 per cent tariff on goods from all other countries, it could lower UK growth. While there is little Rachel Reeves can do on Trump’s trade policy, she has made the decision to increase borrowing when the Trump presidency could lead to an increase in borrowing costs and her headroom being wiped out.
Second, Ukraine. Trump has made clear he plans to do a deal of some sort. If this involves Ukraine having to cede territory to Russia, European leaders will face a choice: do they try to fund the war effort without the US or help sell the deal to Ukraine? While Reeves announced more money for defence in the Budget, the government stopped short of setting a target for spending 2.5 per cent of GDP. If the US takes a less interventionist approach under Trump, is that really sustainable?
Finally, the parliamentary Labour party. It was notably that Kemi Badenoch focused on Lammy’s past criticisms of Trump at PMQs. Starmer would not be drawn on whether Trump should be given various invitations, or whether Lammy had directly apologised for his previous comments. It points to a tension that will be unique to the Labour government. Previous Tory prime ministers had to grapple with how unpredictable Trump could be, making it hard to influence him even when there was a good working relationship.
For Starmer, anything he does to flatter Trump or try to bond with him will rub up a large section of his party the wrong way. Sadiq Khan publicly criticised Trump following his victory, saying it shows ‘progress is not inevitable’. Emily Thornberry, former attorney general has said she stands by past comments that Trump was a ‘racist sexual predator’. Meanwhile other Labour MPs privately worry that the result points to the danger of not listening to the concerns of voters, and see these comments as unhelpful. If Trump responds to Khan with a war of words, will Starmer back his mayor, the new president or sit on the fence? Each comes with a downside.
While Donald Trump’s election victory will have profound consequences across the world, here in the UK it means governing has just got even harder for Starmer.
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