Seth J. Frantzman

Ukraine has exposed the limits of drone warfare

A drone operator with the Ukrainian Army's 93rd Brigade (Credit: Getty images)

As Ukraine prepares for an expected offensive in the spring or summer, key weapons from western countries are bolstering the country’s armed forces. Among the war machines that are expected to make a major impact on the battlefield are Leopard Tanks and other armoured vehicles from the West. What isn’t getting many headlines today are drones for Ukraine. This is a major contrast from the early days of the war, when Ukrainian drones were heroes of the war effort. On the Russian side the reliance on Iranian-made kamikaze drones has also appeared to have diminishing returns for Moscow. The Ukraine war now illustrates the limits of a future dominated by drones on the battlefield. 

Several years ago, the defeat of Armenian forces by Azerbaijan in clashes in the south Caucasus led to a discussion about whether unmanned aerial vehicles with missiles, or acting as kamikaze-style drones, would put an end to the role of large, expensive lumbering tanks on the battlefield. We now see in Ukraine that there are limitations to what drones can do, especially when they are not deployed in large numbers.

The truth is that these drones can’t survive modern day air defenses

To understand the role of drones on the battlefield, it’s worth making a quick distinction between the large number of machines usually called ‘drones’. There are a plethora of unmanned systems that are now deployed by modern armies. These include new types of unmanned vessels being studied by US forces in the Persian Gulf, everything from small boats to hi-tech sailboards, that can provide navies with eyes at sea that can do more than people in a patrol boat might be able to accomplish. There are also different types of small drones, like the Raven, which is launched the same way a person might throw a paper airplane into the air. It weighs around 4lbs and can fly for up to 90 minutes.

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