Mark Galeotti Mark Galeotti

Ukraine’s next move: can Putin be outsmarted?

issue 27 May 2023

Has Ukraine’s much-heralded counter-offensive already begun? At the end of last month, defence minister Oleksy Reznikov promised that ‘as soon as there is God’s will, the weather and a decision by the commanders, we will do it’. The past few weeks have seen an upsurge in what the military describe as shaping operations, preparing the ground for battle, with attacks on Russian fuel and weapons depots and command centres. This week’s incursion by Ukraine’s anti-Kremlin Russian units over the border into the Belgorod region could also be an attempt to distract Moscow and make it disperse its forces away from likely lines of attack.

Kyiv is at once fighting a military campaign against Moscow and a political one in the West

This looks like Schrödinger’s counter-offensive, already begun yet still in abeyance, at once absolutely crucial and unlikely to make a great difference. Either way, come it must, not least because Kyiv is at once fighting a military campaign against Moscow and a political one in the West.

Arguably Ukraine’s greatest potential threat comes not from the Kremlin’s under-performing armed forces but from any weakening of western unity and will to support the war. So far, ‘Ukraine fatigue’ has not become a serious issue, but last week’s promise by G7 leaders that support would continue ‘for as long as it takes’ was essentially rhetorical. Kyiv has few illusions but that this could change quickly, especially with presidential elections in the USA next year raising the prospect of a return of Donald Trump, a man who has already refused to join the ritual affirmations of support for Ukraine.

This means that Kyiv cannot afford to play it safe. After Russia’s abortive and ill-conceived winter offensive, which squandered its opportunity to consolidate its forces, Ukraine is in a relatively strong position. However, it needs to demonstrate what US officials have taken to calling a ‘return on investment’ to its western backers.

Illustration Image

Disagree with half of it, enjoy reading all of it

TRY 3 MONTHS FOR $5
Our magazine articles are for subscribers only. Start your 3-month trial today for just $5 and subscribe to more than one view
Mark Galeotti
Written by
Mark Galeotti

Mark Galeotti heads the consultancy Mayak Intelligence and is honorary professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies and the author of some 30 books on Russia. His latest, Forged in War: a military history of Russia from its beginnings to today, is out now.

Topics in this article

Comments

Join the debate for just £1 a month

Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for £3.

Already a subscriber? Log in