Ukraine’s next move: can Putin be outsmarted?

Has Ukraine’s much-heralded counter-offensive already begun? At the end of last month, defence minister Oleksy Reznikov promised that ‘as soon as there is God’s will, the weather and a decision by the commanders, we will do it’. The past few weeks have seen an upsurge in what the military describe as shaping operations, preparing the ground for battle, with attacks on Russian fuel and weapons depots and command centres. This week’s incursion by Ukraine’s anti-Kremlin Russian units over the border into the Belgorod region could also be an attempt to distract Moscow and make it disperse its forces away from likely lines of attack.

This looks like Schrödinger’s counter-offensive, already begun yet still in abeyance, at once absolutely crucial and unlikely to make a great difference. Either way, come it must, not least because Kyiv is at once fighting a military campaign against Moscow and a political one in the West.

Arguably Ukraine’s greatest potential threat comes not from the Kremlin’s under-performing armed forces but from any weakening of western unity and will to support the war. So far, ‘Ukraine fatigue’ has not become a serious issue, but last week’s promise by G7 leaders that support would continue ‘for as long as it takes’ was essentially rhetorical. Kyiv has few illusions but that this could change quickly, especially with presidential elections in the USA next year raising the prospect of a return of Donald Trump, a man who has already refused to join the ritual affirmations of support for Ukraine.

This means that Kyiv cannot afford to play it safe. After Russia’s abortive and ill-conceived winter offensive, which squandered its opportunity to consolidate its forces, Ukraine is in a relatively strong position. However, it needs to demonstrate what US officials have taken to calling a ‘return on investment’ to its western backers.