Jonathan Saxty

Was the EU ever going to offer Britain a good deal?

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen (photo: Getty)

The announcement that Brexit negotiations are set to continue will no doubt alarm Brexiteers who fear compromise, sell-out and fudge. In fairness to Brussels however, they set out their stall early on and stuck to the script. The EU is unwilling – as they see it – to let Britain have its cake and eat it, by having large access to the EU’s market while not being a member or leaving the club and not ‘paying a price’. This might explain what could otherwise be seen as an unduly recalcitrant attitude. It also explains why any deal which the EU agrees to is likely to be on its terms.

The level playing field has proved a major source of disagreement. While it is suggested that Brussels might drop the ‘ratchet clause’ – which would keep Britain aligned with the EU via Court of Justice of the European Union oversight – it seems Brussels might be going for a softer version via a mechanism whereby ‘divergence’ would invoke ‘rebalancing’ measures. This might be described as a level playing field by the back door. It isn’t that the EU wants no deal – pragmatic Germany certainly does not – but that any deal they agree to will likely be one where Britain comes second.

Rumours are circulating that the EU wants measures to be ‘cross-retaliatory’, which means a divergence in one sector could invite ‘rebalancing’ measures in others. This is before we get to contingency measures Brussels has offered in the event of no deal, including ‘reciprocal’ access so EU fishing boats would continue operating in British waters. Such positions and suggestions might look self-defeating for Brussels, liable to either lead to no deal – potentially harming the EU as much as Britain – or setting up a future of hostility and distrust.

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