Mark Galeotti Mark Galeotti

What Russia’s military shake-up reveals about Putin’s war in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin with deputy chairman of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev and General Sergei Surovikin

When General Alexander Dvornikov was made overall commander of Russia’s forces in April, it looked as if the amateurishness and incoordination of the early stage of the Ukraine war might be being addressed. Now, though, Dvornikov is not around, and a new commander may shape a savage new phase of operations.

In recent days, the Russian defence ministry announced that Colonel General Alexander Lapin was in command of the Central Group of Forces in Ukraine, while General Sergei Surovikin was heading the Southern Group of Forces during the invasion. Of Dvornikov, who has not been seen for weeks, there was no mention, and the British Ministry of Defence suggests he has been removed from his post.

Lapin has been commander of the Central Military District since 2017 and is considered a safe pair of hands. The arrival of Surovikin, though, was a surprise given that he was previously head of the VKS, the Russian’s combined air and air defence forces. He is no airman. Until 2017, Surovikin served in the Ground Forces, fighting in the Soviet war in Afghanistan, Russia’s military intervention into the Tajikistan civil war, and then the Second Chechen War, where he was wounded in action. He has a reputation for extreme toughness: in 2004, one of his subordinates shot himself in Surovikin’s office after he had been chewed out.

Surovikin has had a rather chequered past

Surovikin has had a rather chequered past. He spent seven months in custody after the hard-line 1991 coup against Mikhail Gorbachev, as three protesters died when Surovikin forced his way through them. Then in 1995, he was convicted of having stolen and sold a service sidearm, although the charge was later quashed.

Nonetheless, he is also one of the most able officers of his generation, with a reputation as a problem-solver.

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