James Forsyth James Forsyth

Which way, Mrs May?

Both sides suspect the Prime Minister's Brexit policy is essentially to be equidistant between them

For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Every time Conservative Leavers speak up demanding a clean break with Brussels, those in the party who want a soft Brexit feel obliged to push back.

The latest row has been provoked by a letter from the European Research Group — the most powerful Brexiteer bloc in the party. The letter urged Theresa May to deliver ‘full regulatory autonomy’ for the UK. It was taken by many on the soft Brexit wing of the party as a threat to pull support for her if she deviated from this objective. After all, it was signed by 62 MPs — more than it would take to call a vote of confidence in her leadership. So the soft Brexiteers retaliated. They suggested they’d vote for an amendment requiring the government to form a customs union with the EU after Brexit.

Mrs May’s problem is that both sides suspect that her policy is essentially to be equidistant between them. Both sides then have an incentive to adopt hardline positions in the hope of dragging her their way. Among former Remainers, there is also a sense that if they had been as difficult and combative as the Eurosceptics over the years, Britain wouldn’t actually be leaving the EU, as David Cameron would never have committed to a referendum.

No. 10 believes it will need the votes of pretty much every Tory MP to pass a Brexit deal. Jeremy Corbyn’s tactical positioning on the customs union has reinforced the sense that Labour will ultimately take any opportunity to defeat the government. Thus every group of Tory MPs believes it is worth trying to bend the government to their will.

In this exercise, the European Research Group has certain structural advantages.

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