Wolfgang Münchau Wolfgang Münchau

Who will succeed Merkel?

Coalition talks have begun

(Getty)

The results of the German election have shifted somewhat since last night’s exit poll. What we know for sure is that a red-red-green coalition — between the centre-left SPD, far-left Die Linke and the Greens — is short of a majority, which is contrary to what every single opinion poll projected in the last few weeks

That is the single biggest news from the German elections. It deprives SPD leader Olaf Scholz of what he would have needed to force the free-market liberals of the FDP and Greens into a coalition, also known as the traffic light coalition. A coalition involving Die Linke could have been leveraged to sharpen minds, the threat of socialists and anti-capitalists having access to the chancellery. That threat is now gone and Scholz’s negotiating position is weakened.

Yet Scholz was still the winner last night. It was the worst ever result for Merkel’s centre-right CDU/CSU, but it beat expectations. Without the threat of red-red-green, we are down to only three feasible coalition options: two under Olaf Scholz and one under Armin Laschet.

These election results are about as good as could be expected for Laschet

One of these options, a grand coalition between the SPD and the CDU/CSU under Scholz, is not very likely. The chattering classes in Berlin love grand coalitions because it gives them maximal access to power. But after three grand coalitions in 16 years, this is clearly not the voters’ favoured option.

This leaves us with two main options: a traffic light coalition under Scholz of the SPD, Greens and FDP — or a Jamaica coalition with the CDU/CSU, Greens and FDP, under Armin Laschet. Jamaica seems the more likely option because the CDU/CSU has more room for political manoeuvre. Laschet’s lack of political positions is not great for winning elections but comes in handy now he’s negotiating coalitions.

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