Justin Bronk

Why the West is reluctant to give Ukraine F-16s

(Photo: Getty)

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine almost a year ago, the questions of if, when and how to supply the Ukrainian Air Force (UkrAF) with western fighter aircraft have been a matter of fierce debate. President Zelenskyy has made repeated and impassioned calls for American-made F-16s in particular, as have UkrAF leaders and pilots.  

Russia has a dense and highly lethal network of ground-based surface-to-air missile systems

A significant majority of people in Europe and the United States want to see Ukraine emerge victorious and at peace on its own terms as soon as possible. Therefore, it is natural that many are wondering why it is taking so long for western countries to give Ukraine’s pilots the formidable combat aircraft used by the United States and its allies to such devastating effect in every conflict since the end of the Cold War. After all, it is a truism in western militaries that air superiority is a prerequisite for battlefield success. Recent announcements by the Dutch and Polish governments have hinted that they might transfer F-16 Viper multirole fighters to the UkrAF, but senior leaders in the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany have all stated that they will not for the time being. There are several likely reasons for this reticence.  

First and foremost is the problem of Russia’s dense and highly lethal network of ground-based surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. The skies over the frontlines in Ukraine are covered by multiple layers of air defence threats from large, long-range systems like the infamous SA-21 ‘Triumf’ (known in Russia as the S-400) to more numerous and mobile medium-range SAMs like the SA-17 ‘Buk’ and short-range SA-15 ‘Tor’. In addition, Russia has also deployed exotic long-range sensors like the 48Ya6-K1 ‘Podlet’ all-altitude-radar, which can further increase the distances behind the frontlines at which the longer-range Russian SAMs like the S-400 can shoot down Ukrainian jets and helicopters.

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Written by
Justin Bronk
Justin Bronk is the Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology in the Military Sciences team at RUSI. He is also Editor of the RUSI Defence Systems online journal.

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