Xi Jinping has made it very clear over the years that he is determined for China to reunite with Taiwan. He has staked his legacy and his legitimacy on it. The problem for Beijing is that the polls in Taiwan continually show that only one per cent of the population is in favour of reunification now. If Xi wants Taiwan then he will almost certainly have to take it by force. Although some western commentators argue that Russia’s travails in Ukraine have made an invasion less likely, there is no evidence to support a change in policy in Beijing.
Even though Taiwan’s military is undertrained and equipped with tanks and planes from a half-century ago, three-quarters of its citizens say they are prepared to fight to keep the island free from mainland rule. What’s more, recent rhetoric has indicated that both Japan and the US are likely to step in if an invasion were to happen. In this scenario, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would bear a heavy cost if it launched a full-scale invasion across the 100-mile wide Taiwan Strait.
There is, however, another way to secure Taiwan, one inspired by China’s most famous military philosopher. Sun Tzu, who is still widely read by the leaders of the PLA today, stated that ‘the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting’, and this may be exactly what Beijing is planning by means of a naval and aerial blockade.
Washington and its allies need to start playing a smarter game
A blockade of Taiwan would kill several birds with one stone. The island would be cut off from western arms shipments, and all its imports and exports would be subject to control and potential sanction by Beijing. This would both bring the territory’s economy to its knees and make it much harder to fight back against the PLA.
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