Will Gordon go?

There are two schools of thought on whether the chances of an early election have increased or receded since last week. On the one hand, the Tory conference was a success and Labour’s polling in its key marginals is “patchy and extremely tight”, according to The Independent; suggesting that Gordon Brown should hold off.  On the other hand, as Matt argued on the Today Programme when he moved his election clock two minutes closer to midnight, if Brown doesn’t go now it will look like Cameron has scared him off.

Realistically, Brown is unlikley to lose any early election. But he could easily see Labour’s majority reduced and with it his authority. As John Rentoul points out this morning, “The moment the election is over, the question moves on to: “Are you going to fight the next one? Who will be the next leader, Ed Balls or David Miliband?” If Labour’s majority is a small one, these questions will seriously discomfort Brown.