Let’s make one thing clear right from the off: the IFS did not just say that the government would break its pledge to increase health spending in real terms. What it did say is that the government is coming close to breaking it — and that’s the truth. Here’s the graph that we’ve put together to compare the real terms health spending figures in last October’s Spending Review (the green line, calculated using last November’s inflation figures) with those in yesterday’s Budget (the red line, calculated using yesterday’s inflation figures):
Hang on. Doesn’t that show health spending going down in real terms, after this fiscal year? Well, yeah, kinda. But the IFS was reluctant to describe this as a definite “real terms cut,” and for three main reasons. First, that, if anything, this is more like a freeze: the total for 2011-12 is £102.9
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