Will the Redditch by-election force Jacqui Smith’s hand?

A leadership challenge really picks up steam when Cabinet ministers start coming out in support of it.  Who’ll be the first to do so, should Miliband, Straw, Harman et al decide to run?  One good bet might be the senior minister who’s most vulnerable to defeat in the next general election – the one who’s got the most to lose if Gordon Brown stays in power, and the least to lose by forcing a change. 

In this case, that person’s got to be Jacqui Smith.  A swing of just 3.4 percent – the lowest “swing value” of anyone in the cabinet – would see her lose her seat at the next election.  A precarious position, then, which started looking just-over-quadruply so after the council by-election in Redditch, Smith’s home turf, a couple of weeks ago.  For whatever reason, that election received scant coverage.  But the result will not have bypassed our Home Secretary – two new Tory councillors were swept into office, after a 14.2