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Will Ukraine retreat from Bakhmut?

(Photo: Alamy)

‘Is Putin winning?’ asks the cover of this week’s Spectator. Until recently the overall narrative around the war focused on how much land Ukraine was liberating from Russian occupation – but the Kremlin’s strategy of throwing soldiers into the meat-grinder is paying off, with significant progress on their way to the encirclement of the city of Bakhmut.

For over six months Bakhmut has been the hottest spot on the Donbas front, with Ukrainian soldiers holding steady against the Russian regular army and Wagner Group mercenaries. But the loss of the salt town of Soledar in January and overwhelming Russian artillery and man density has allowed Russian forces to cut off two of Ukraine’s three main supply routes to Bakhmut. Now, they hold the last major road under fire control. There is every risk of Ukrainian soldiers in the city being cut off. The below map shows the state of play.

The Institute for the Study of War

Western allies have been telling Ukraine to retreat from the city, saying it’s as good as lost and no longer worth the fight. But Ukrainian soldiers are known for their steadiness: they fought for Mariupol under siege for 82 days last year, holding a large part of the Russian troops away from other targets. In 2015 Ukrainian forces left Donetsk airport after 242 days of fierce battles, which also stopped the Russian army from advancing further. These achievements have inspired Kyiv to use the same strategy for Bakhmut today. Soldiers stay there because it stops Russians from moving on to other cities.

A week ago Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of Ukraine ground forces, visited the battlefield and ordered additional units to move to Bakhmut. Serhiy Cherevaty, the Ukrainian military spokesman, said: ‘As long as the command sees that it makes sense to keep a certain settlement, it will be fought for.’

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