SpecData

Notes and observations on facts and figures in the news

Michael Simmons

There are now seven million migrant workers in the UK

For the first time ever there are seven million migrant workers in Britain’s job market. Figures released by the ONS this morning show that more than one in five jobs in Britain is now filled by someone born overseas – despite a fall in EU workers since Brexit. Overall, that’s an increase of 183,000 – equivalent to a town the size of Warrington or a city the size of Southend – since the election, and up over one million since the first lockdown. The rest of this morning’s ONS release suggest the jobs market could be about to face a slowdown. The ONS stats show employers reducing hiring. Above inflation pay

Michael Simmons

How did pollsters get Trump’s victory so wrong?

Was Donald Trump’s win unexpected? Not if you followed the betting markets, which had Trump at a two-thirds chance of winning days out from the election. The polls, on the other hand, told a different story. Analysis of polls carried out in 15 competitive states in the three weeks before last Tuesday’s election shows that whatever the method of polling used, there was a clear and consistent bias in favour of the Democrats. Pollsters spent an estimated half a billion dollars (£388 million) on this election, but most polling methods were still biased towards Kamala Harris by around three percentage points. One method – recruiting participants by mail – managed

Michael Simmons

Michael Simmons, Christopher Howse and Melissa Kite

19 min listen

This week, Michael Simmons looks at the dodgy graph thats justified the second lockdown (00:55), Christopher Howse examines what happened to received pronunciation (05:56), and Melissa Kite wonders whether Surrey’s busybodies have followed her and her boyfriend to Cork (14:47). Presented and produced by Max Jeffery.

Simon Cook

Why do so many private school students get extra time in exams?

Are independent schools gaming the system to give a disproportionate advantage to their pupils in exams? That’s one possible inference from a new data release from Ofqual (the Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation) on access arrangements for school exams. The release sheds light on adjustments designed so that students with disabilities aren’t disadvantaged in assessments. This might include, for example, papers in braille for a blind student or allowing a student with dyslexia to use a word processor. Giving a pupil 25 per cent extra time to complete an exam is the most common adjustment schools can provide. The reasons commonly provided for the adjustment included English being a second language, physical disabilities that

Steerpike

Did 100 Labour activists scare off 400k Democrat voters?

Was it Labour wot lost it? It was less than a month ago, as Kamala Harris appeared to be riding high, that dozens of bright-eyed British Starmtroopers began descending on America. In a now-infamous LinkedIn post, Sofia Patel, Labour’s head of operations, urged others to join them in North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia. ‘I have nearly 100 Labour party staff (current and former) going to the US in the next few weeks,’ she boasted. ‘Let’s show the Democrats how to win elections!’ Fast forward three weeks and we know what happened next. The Trump campaign reacted in its usually understated way, threatening lawsuits, firing off bombastic threats and channelling

Simon Cook

Did lockdown make children overweight?

Every year, the government weighs and measures children in Reception (ages 4-5) and Year 6 (ages 10-11). The National Child Measurement Programme isn’t always popular with parents but it gives us priceless public health information on hundreds of thousands of children. With such a robust data set, it gives us the ability to look at how children change over time and test some of the theories that get thrown around about childhood growth and obesity. During the summer, a report from the Food Foundation claimed that the average height of five year olds was falling and had been since 2013. Gordon Brown thundered that this was down to ‘food bank Britain’ and

How Donald did it: the road to the White House in charts and graphs

Donald Trump has become the first president since Grover Cleveland to be elected to non-consecutive terms in the White House. But how did he do it? Pollsters and pundits had predicted a close-run thing with Harris ahead in key states but in the end, the betting markets were right: Donald Trump swept to victory. When Big Ben bongs at 10 p.m. on election night in the UK we’re told straight away who the next prime minister will be. American exit polls don’t quite work like that. Instead, AP and Fox News’s exit poll showed us that the economy and immigration were the top issues for voters. But another poll for

Donald Trump declares victory

Donald Trump has declared victory in the US election after winning the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. ‘America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,’ the Republican candidate told supporters. ‘This is a magnificent victory for the American people, that will allow us to make America great again,’ he said at the rally in Florida. Trump has still not secured the 270 Electoral College votes he needs to confirm victory, but the path to the White House looks increasingly narrow for his Democrat rival Kamala Harris. The Republicans have taken control of the Senate from the Democrats, having turned seats in Ohio and West Virginia.

Steerpike

Brits predict a Kamala win as Americans go to the polls

In a few hours, US election results will start to roll in, and while Britons this side of the pond have no say on the outcome they’ve been keen to give their opinions to prowling pollsters. New YouGov polling of 6,520 UK adults has revealed that almost four in ten Brits expect Kamala Harris to emerge victorious in this year’s election – regardless of who they would personally prefer to win. The survey shows that 38 per cent of participants are predicting a Harris victory while just under a third of Brits (31 per cent) think Donald Trump will be elected president a second time. Not that the gamblers quite

How accurate are the US election polls?

Is Donald Trump going to lose Iowa? That’s the conclusion many US pundits came to after a bombshell poll over the weekend. That poll, conducted by the psephologist Ann Selzer, put Kamala Harris three points ahead of Trump in Iowa, despite Trump having comfortably won the state by almost ten points in the past two presidential elections. So Iowa could tonight return to swing state status. In past elections voters in the state have backed Reagan, Clinton, Obama, and Trump: now they might turn to Harris. However, at the same time as the Selzer poll was published, a contradictory but less-covered poll indicated another strong Trump victory. This poll from Emerson College concluded that

Steerpike

Gamblers are putting their money on a Trump triumph

It’s polling day across the pond and Steerpike is keen to have a flutter. Opinion polling in the US election suggests the safe money is on Kamala Harris, but his fellow gamblers seem to be telling a different story. Data analysed by Mr S’s friends in the Speccies’ data dungeon shows money is pouring in behind The Donald. Trump has a nearly two thirds chance of returning to the White House in January, according to an analysis of implied probabilities. Do the punters know something the pundits don’t?  Mr S will be tracking the betting markets every five minutes and updating the graph below…

Michael Simmons

Could ADHD bankrupt English councils?

Every time a chancellor sits down after delivering their budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) releases their ‘economic and fiscal outlook’. What seems a boringly-named Whitehall document is actually a treasure trove of information about the state of the country. It reveals more about how we live our lives – and what lies ahead, than perhaps any other document apart from the decennial census. Buried within its pages are harbingers of the problems future governments will face. Page 129 of the nearly 200-page document carries one such alarming warning: a huge surge in the amount local authorities are likely to have to provide to fund children with special educational

Steerpike

Revealed: Tory membership falls by almost a quarter in two years

Will the last person to leave the Tory party please turn out the lights? After an exodus of Conservative MPs from their jobs before the election (75 of them decided to quit rather than contest) we found out at today’s leadership announcement, courtesy of Bob Blackman, chair of the 1922 Committee, that members have bolted from the party too. The Tories don’t like to release their official membership numbers, but Blackman, just before announcing the results, said that the ‘total number of eligible electors’ (really meaning members) was 131,680. Now, if Mr Steerpike’s memory serves him correctly, in the 2022 run-off between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, there were allegedly

Simon Cook

Is staff sickness crippling the NHS?

Some £22 billion of the £40 billion in tax rises the Chancellor announced this week will go straight to the NHS – an NHS that was already better funded than at any point in its history. It seems that no matter how many cash injections – huge or enormous – the health service gets, its problems continue. Could staff sickness be part of the problem? I’ve crunched the numbers for The Spectator’s data hub and this is what I found. The NHS is a notoriously stressful place to work and The Spectator’s analysis of sickness data for hospital and community services staff shows the toll it takes – as well as the huge

Steerpike

Revealed: Reeves’s tax rises expose Labour’s misleading manifesto claims

Casting his mind back to the election, Mr S recalls a heated debate about which party would raise taxes most. In the final televised debate before the national poll, Sir Keir Starmer was quick to accuse then-PM Rishi Sunak of ‘repeating a lie’ – that Labour were going to raise taxes by £2,000 per person. And, to be fair, he had a point: on Sunak’s own maths the Tories would have raised taxes by, er, £3,000 per person. Awkward… Mr S’s friends at The Spectator’s DataHub have crunched all the manifestos put out at the time to see just who really would be responsible for the greatest tax hikes – with

Eight graphs that expose the truth about Labour’s Budget

Rachel Reeves sounded triumphant as she delivered Labour’s first Budget in 14 years. ‘Invest, invest, invest,’ the Chancellor said. She claimed hers was a Budget for growth and prosperity and, that most of all, it was a Budget to help working people. But the Office for Budget Responsibility – the body set up 14 years ago by George Osborne to judge fiscal events – doesn’t seem to agree. Its report, published immediately after the Chancellor delivered her Budget, makes for grim reading. The stand-out chart in the OBR’s report shows the effect the increase in employer National Insurance contributions will have on Britain’s labour force. Reeves gets much of her

Kate Andrews

Yet another NHS Budget boost – but where’s the reform?

We won’t have to speculate about the details of the Labour’s first Budget much longer. But one tradition as old as time has been confirmed by the Treasury: the National Health Service is getting more cash. ‘Our NHS is the lifeblood of Britain,’ the Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said ahead of unveiling her full Budget tomorrow. ‘That’s why I am putting an end to the neglect and underinvestment it has seen for over a decade now.’ This is set to include £1.57 billion of capital spending to expand surgical hubs and provide more equipment. An additional £1.8 billion worth of funding will also be announced to help Labour make good on its

Michael Simmons

Britain’s population problem cannot be ignored

Never before have English and Welsh mothers produced so few babies. New data, released by the ONS yesterday, shows the number of babies expected to be born per woman last year fell to 1.44 – down from 1.49 the year before and the lowest recorded level since these things began to be officially tracked in 1938. For a population to ‘naturally’ sustain itself (e.g. without immigration) an average fertility rate of 2.1 is needed. Looking at the raw numbers, fewer babies were born than at any time since the late 1970s. Last year just 591,072 births were registered in England and Wales and the fertility rate has been falling consistently for the

Michael Simmons

Does Kamala Harris poll better against Donald Trump?

Kamala Harris seems overwhelmingly likely to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, having been given the blessing of both Bill Clinton and Biden himself. But does she actually have a better chance of beating Donald Trump than Biden did?  The betting markets think it’s a done deal: the below shows that other possibilities (Gavin Newsom, Whitmer etc) are nothing more than wild outside bets. So let’s focus on Harris. Since the Trump-Biden debate last month, a handful of polls have shown that voters would be no more or less likely to vote Democrat if Harris replaced Biden as the presidential nominee. In all of these polls, Trump leads (albeit