George osborne

Theresa May eviscerates Craig Oliver

This time last year, George Osborne was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and tipped to be the next Prime Minister. One year on and — in the aftermath of the Brexit result — the MP for Tatton is now a backbencher. Happily, Osborne had a chance to reunite with his old Cabinet friends, aka ‘besties’ — as the host of the Spectator’s Parliamentarian of the Year awards. Like or loathe Osborne, his speech was sensational. Following a turbulent year in politics, tonight’s gongs made for some interesting acceptance speeches. While Sadiq Khan paid tribute to his mayoral rival Zac Goldsmith for helping him to achieve his large mandate, Boris Johnson

Today’s GDP figures show the ‘inevitable’ Brexit recession wasn’t so inevitable after all

So now we know. The recession that we were told would be ‘inevitable’ if we voted to leave the EU was not quite so inevitable after all. In fact, it hasn’t happened at all. The Office of National Statistics’ first estimate of economic growth for the third quarter has the economy growing by 0.5 per cent. Though this is just an early estimate and could well be revised – revision upwards or downwards of 0.1 to 0.2 per cent are perfectly normal – it is certainly not indicating a recession, which would be two quarters of negative growth. It is pretty much in line with how the economy was growing

It’s time for Mark Carney to go

Oh dear. Mark Carney is irritated. His proud independence has been challenged. The Prime Minister had the temerity to admit that she was not altogether thrilled with his ‘super-low’ interest rates and quantitative easing. These policies meant that people with assets got richer, she pointed out. ‘People without them suffered… People with savings have found themselves poorer.’ Mr Carney found this intolerable and haughtily rebuffed her, saying, ‘The policies are done by technocrats. We are not going to take instruction on our policies from the political side.’ Back in your box, Mrs May. Carney’s in charge! As they clash, it is increasingly hard to remember what a bright day it

Boris’s Royal Yacht obsession shows his weakness for vanity projects

I would like to think that the lack of obvious progress on negotiating a post-Brexit deal with the EU is, as Theresa May said this week, part of a strategy – that there is a lot going on behind the scenes but it is not in our interests for the Government to give a ‘running commentary’ on it. But listening to the foreign secretary speaking before the Commons foreign affairs committee I am beginning to wonder. Maybe, actually nothing is going on. Top of Boris’s ‘to do’ list, it seems, is not securing trade deals with the world beyond the EU. It is securing himself a royal yacht on which

The three Europhiles take on the three Brexiteers

Today it was a case of the ghosts of governments past as George Osborne, Michael Heseltine and Vince Cable were hauled before the Commons Business Committee to discuss the UK’s industrial strategy. What followed was a bit of a love-in as Heseltine commended Osborne for his time in the Cabinet – praising Cameron’s government for working on industrial strategy ‘on a bigger scale than any previous government’. Less popular during the session were the Brexit bunch. Heseltine mocked May’s three Brexiteers – Liam Fox, Boris Johnson and David Davis. When asked by Richard Fuller how important it was for Britain to secure free trade agreements, he jokingly replied that he

Tom Goodenough

The Treasury’s ‘Hard Brexit’ warning shows Project Fear isn’t over yet

Can someone please tell HM Treasury that the referendum is over? During that campaign, it made history by producing a claim that Brexit would make people £4,300 worse off per household. It was nonsense, debunked here at the time. It was not just a porkie, but a historic porkie: polls showed just 17 per cent believed this figure, around the same number that think Elvis is still alive. Even Sir Will Straw, head of the Remain campaign, admitted later that his case was actually damaged by this ridiculous campaign. The Treasury ought to be holding an inquiry into how such a wilfully misleading figure was eve produced by the civil service,

Diary – 6 October 2016

Any day now, the government will make its long delayed announcement on whether a third runway should be built at Heathrow or Gatwick. Personally I am against both. During my 18 undistinguished months as an environment minister, I learned one thing about the aviation lobby: their appetite is voracious. They want more of everything. Runways, terminals, you name it. I also learned that in the end, often after initial resistance, governments always give way. Although from time to time industry representatives hint that they would be prepared to make concessions on the handful of night flights that come in over central London each morning, disturbing the sleep of several million

Damian Green strikes a softer tone on welfare

Under David Cameron, it was sometimes tricky to tell who was in charge at the DWP. Iain Duncan Smith favoured a softer approach to welfare reform while over at the Treasury, George Osborne’s interventions were more nakedly political. It all came to a head in March when IDS resigned after Osborne announced £4bn of cuts to disability benefits. That was just over six months ago and seems like a distant memory in the pre-referendum haze. Yet it’s rapidly becoming clear that under Damian Green, things will be very different at the DWP. As with other areas of Government, Theresa May’s work and pensions secretary has marked a signal departure with

Ross Clark

The Brexit bounce continues

Just when you thought economists might finally have got the message about their doom-laden predictions for the economy following the vote for Brexit, along comes another statistic showing they are still getting it hopelessly wrong. I wrote here last month about how the Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers Index – an early indicator of economic growth – had moved into positive territory in August, defying predictions that it would stay below 50, a level which suggests a shrinking economy. There was then, however, still one black cloud – the construction industry element of the index stood at 49.3 in August. That suggested that housebuilders and other construction companies were still suffering from

Steerpike

The Notting Hill set stay away from Birmingham

At this year’s Labour conference, the absence of several centrist MPs at the annual event was taken as a sign that the party was far from a united one. So, what about the Conservatives? It hasn’t gone unnoticed that the majority of the once omnipotent Notting Hill set have stayed away from Tory conference in Birmingham. While Lord Feldman has bothered to show up, backbenchers George Osborne and Michael Gove are nowhere to be seen. Meanwhile fellow Cameroon Ed Vaizey was notably absent at a fringe event on Monday where he was scheduled to talk about the centre ground in politics. With only Nicky Morgan here to defend Cameron’s legacy, the former

The Hammond era will be very different to the Osborne one

Philip Hammond is a very different kind of Chancellor than George Osborne. Osborne’s conference speeches ranged across the policy landscape; Hammond’s was tightly focused on his brief. You wouldn’t have known from it that Hammond had been Foreign Secretary until a few months ago. On the economy, Hammond confirmed that the government was no longer targeting a surplus by 2020. Hammond, sounding less downbeat about Brexit than he had on the radio this morning, was clear that there will be a fiscal stimulus announced in the autumn statement. Hammond also talked about how to raise productivity, his favourite subject. One striking feature of Hammond’s speech was how he repeatedly emphasised

Tom Goodenough

Philip Hammond’s Brexit scepticism is alive and well

In the run-up to the referendum, Philip Hammond was one of those warning of the dire consequences of a vote to leave the EU. He predicted that Brexit would have a ‘chilling effect’ on the UK economy and said there would be uncertainty for years to come. Since being made Chancellor, Hammond has softened his language about the doom and gloom of Brexit. But only just. This morning, he’s been touring the studios and airwaves ahead of his keynote speech at the Tory party conference in Birmingham. His headline announcement? Ditching the policy put in place by George Osborne to wipe out the deficit by 2020. But while the Chancellor

George Osborne warns that he won’t ‘fumble’ his next leadership bid

Well, that didn’t take long. George Osborne has had dinner with the FT and the write-up shows him as ambitious as ever. Having never held down a job outside of politics, the former Chancellor isn’t looking for one now. ‘I am not going anywhere,’ he said, ‘I want to see what happens next.’ It seems he is angling for Christine Lagarde’s job at the IMF, but the most striking quote is about his leadership ambitions: ‘Asked about a possible return to the front line, Mr Osborne adopted — with a twist — a phrase used by Mr Johnson in 2013 to deflect questions about his prime ministerial intentions: ‘If the

Tom Goodenough

Jim O’Neill’s decision to quit gives Theresa May something of a headache

Jim O’Neill, who was somehow overlooked in Theresa May’s purge of the Osbornites, has become the first person to resign from her Government. A few weeks ago, the former Goldman Sachs chairman said he wanted assurances that she remained committed to the Northern Powerhouse agenda. It seems that no such undertakings were received. In his somewhat terse letter this morning, he had this to say: ‘I primarily joined however for the specific purpose of helping deliver the Northern Powerhouse, and to help boost our economic ties with key growing economies around the world, especially China and India and other rapidly emerging economies. The case for both to be at the heart of British economic

The Brexit bounce continues – ten forecasters up their predictions for 2016 growth

The Brexit bounce continues. HM Treasury has today released forecasts of the economists it follows, as it does every month. Last time, there was a flurry of downgrades and forecasts of an immediate recession. Now, these forecasts are being torn up by everyone, including by the FT (although you can bet the FT won’t report on the upgrades as eagerly as it did the downgrades). The average new forecast suggests GDP will grow by 1.8 per cent this year, far better than the 1.5 per cent forecast last month. This back to where the consensus was before the Brexit vote. The OECD, which had previously predicted “immediate” uncertainty after a

Tom Goodenough

Brexit U-turns: who is rowing back on their Project Fear warnings?

In the run-up to the referendum, we were warned Brexit would unleash misery. George Osborne suggested a vote for Brexit would lead to a DIY recession. And numerous business bosses and the great and the good piled in to add their warnings to the doom-mongering. Yet in the weeks since the referendum, their predictions of chaos have not come true. What’s more, many of those shouting the loudest about the consequence of Brexit are now furiously rowing back on their warnings. Here, The Spectator compiles the Brexit u-turns and referendum backtracking: In the aftermath of the vote, many major banks and financial institutions continued to warn that Brexit spelt bad news for the

George Osborne interview: championing the ‘voice of the liberal mainstream’

After just eight weeks in the wilderness, George Osborne is back – and wants to put the pressure on Theresa May to use the phrase ‘Northern Powerhouse’ and the agenda that goes with it. Here’s an edited transcript of his BBC Today Programme interview this morning with Nick Robinson. NR: We want to talk about the Northern Powerhouse, but just to be clear then, you’re not tempted to follow your now ex-leader out of politics and spend some time writing your memoirs? No, I’m not. I don’t want to write my memoirs because I don’t know how the story ends and I want to hang around and find out. And

The Spectator podcast: The Brexit bounce | 10 September 2016

On the morning of the 24th June, Britain woke to find its stock market shattered and its pound pummelled. It appeared – for a brief moment – like all the prophecies of the Brexit doomsayers, not least the Great Seer Osborne, had come true. But then, from the wreckage of that mid-summer morning, green shoots began to appear, and now, more than two months down the line, it seems that Britain has bounced back. In his cover piece this week, Ross Clark argues that the Remain campaign fell victim to the perils of believing their opinion to be ‘objective fact’, and that economic recovery has humiliated the Treasury, Bank of

Wetherspoon’s boss is right to mock doomster economists over Brexit

In the referendum run-up, we were inundated with warnings and messages of doom and gloom about the untold damage Brexit would unleash – and unleash immediately. It took a pub boss – Tim Martin, the founder of JD Wetherspoon’s – to add a bit of perspective. Why, he argued, would consumer sentiment plunge of a majority voted Brexit and got what they wanted? Why, if we wouldn’t actually leave the EU for two years, would the economy fall of a cliff? At the time, he was mocked for knowing nothing more than how to pull pints. But now, with the prophecies of economic woe having failed to materialise, it seems he was more

The Spectator podcast: The Brexit bounce

On the morning of the 24th June, Britain woke to find its stock market shattered and its pound pummelled. It appeared – for a brief moment – like all the prophecies of the Brexit doomsayers, not least the Great Seer Osborne, had come true. But then, from the wreckage of that mid-summer morning, green shoots began to appear, and now, more than two months down the line, it seems that Britain has bounced back. In his cover piece this week, Ross Clark argues that the Remain campaign fell victim to the perils of believing their opinion to be ‘objective fact’, and that economic recovery has humiliated the Treasury, Bank of