Would Labour have won if an election had been held today?

Today, as the Tories are eager to remind us, would have been election day if Gordon hadn’t lost his nerve. What would have happened will be a great parlour game for years to come but Anthony Wells’s analysis is well worth noting:

“More importantly looking at the current polls I suspect Labour would have been ahead in an election today. The polls straight after the Conservative party conference when Gordon Brown decided not to have an election were showing a temporary Conservative boost from a successful party conference. In this alternate universe they would probably have subsided. In the polls we’ve seen lately Gordon Brown’s approval ratings have plummeted and pollsters are finding that he is suddenly seen as ineffective and indecisive, his image as being more of a heavyweight than David Cameron shattered. Without the humiliation of the non-election announcement I expect that change in perceptions of Brown would not have happened or, at least, wouldn’t have happened to such an extent. Labour’s poll rating would still have been sustained by a new Prime Minister riding high on his honeymoon, with a reputation for strength and decisiveness.” 

Also worth checking out on this front is Newsnight’s take on it all last night which includes analysis from Matt. Whatever he may be saying today, I still think that David Cameron must be very glad that the election has been delayed. If the poll had been this year, ‘winning’ would have been about denying Brown an overall majority. Now, Cameron can realistically contemplate having a working majority of his own although Brown’s powers of resilience should not be misunderestimated.