World

Can the British army stretch to peace-keeping in Ukraine?

It has been a traumatic week for Europe’s political and military leaders. Last Wednesday, without warning, US President Donald Trump announced that he had spoken to Vladimir Putin by telephone for 90 minutes. During a ‘highly productive call’, he and the Russian leader had ‘agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately’ to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had not been informed of the conversation beforehand, much less involved. The transactional high-handedness of Trump’s approach, ignoring the injured party in the conflict and making direct and friendly overtures to the aggressor, should not have come as a surprise. But it left

The crypto crash haunting Javier Milei

When Javier Milei took power in Argentina there was one group whose ears pricked up with interest: the global crypto bros. After all, here was a president who seemed perfectly aligned with their values. A lover of economic freedom who harbours a deep hatred for state regulations and government spending. Surely this ‘anarcho-capitalist’ was a fan of cryptocurrencies? Twitter filled with threads about why Milei’s election victory was a ‘big moment for Bitcoin’. Once in power, however, he did not seem all that interested. That is until Friday, when he took to his X account to post about a new crypto coin that was ‘dedicated to boosting the growth of

Svitlana Morenets

The US and Russia must not force Ukrainian elections

After four hours of talks in Saudi Arabia, Russian and American negotiators have reportedly come up with a three-stage plan to end the war in Ukraine. According to Fox News, the plan includes a ceasefire, elections in Ukraine and the signing of a final agreement. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, who was neither informed nor invited to the talks, said that Russia and the US are discussing the same old ultimatum Moscow set at the start of full-scale war. ‘I wonder – if we didn’t accept such ultimatums in our most difficult moment, why does anyone think we would now?’, he said. Back in February 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin said he

Ukraine

Mark Galeotti

Is Trump’s hostile takeover of Ukraine a trap?

That Donald Trump’s vision of the presidency is less statesman and more CEO of USA Inc. is evident in the terms of the deal he tried to foist on Ukraine last week. As talks begin between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia, a leak reveals that Trump wanted Kyiv to sign away much of its mineral resources to Washington. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected this piece of blatant economic colonialism, but the Ukrainians expect further such demands to come. This is the essence of Trump’s brave new world The draft frames this as the establishment of a joint investment fund such that ‘hostile parties to the conflict do

What Putin wants and what America will do

If I had a penny for every time I have been told that Russian President Vladimir Putin only wants respect. Or that he is only interested in eastern Ukraine. Or that if Kyiv is only denied NATO membership then he will call off the tanks. Well, in the last seven days US President Donald Trump has given Putin all this and more. And, though it is still early days, so far the war is showing no sign of slowing. And what has the man who wrote The Art of the Deal asked for in exchange for all this diplomatic largesse? Absolutely nothing. In fact, the only substantive demand Trump has

James Heale

The UK’s balancing act over Trump’s ‘Ukraine peace plan’

13 min listen

Leaders from around the world are gathering at the Munich Security Conference, with the UK represented by Foreign Secretary David Lammy. All attention has turned to Ukraine, given statements this week by President Trump that he had spoken to Putin (and later Zelensky) about ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump’s statements, for example that NATO membership should be off the table, put him at odds with European allies. The UK signed a joint statement with leaders from France, Germany and others, that Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity are unconditional. Is the UK walking a tight-rope between the US and Europe? Where does this leave the NATO alliance? And, with a strategic

China

America

Europe

Katja Hoyer

Can Germany rise to the challenge of protecting Europe?

When European leaders discussed their response to US-Russian negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz felt ‘a little irritated’. France and Britain suggested sending European troops to secure a peace deal. Days away from an election likely to boot him out of power, Scholz found this an ‘inappropriate debate at the wrong time’. It will likely fall to his successor to shoulder Germany’s fair share of responsibility for European security. US and Russian officials have today held the first of peace talks in Saudi Arabia, forcing European countries to determine their role as a matter of urgency. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said ‘European nations

Gavin Mortimer

Europe has much to learn from Georgia Meloni

Giorgia Meloni was nearly an hour late for Monday’s European crisis summit at the Elysee Palace in Paris. According to the French press, Italy’s prime minister made her appearance ‘in the middle of the meeting, 50 minutes later than the agreed time’. Perhaps her Maserati got caught in the Paris traffic, or perhaps Meloni made her late entrance intentionally; a way of underlining to her host, Emmanuel Macron, and the other European leaders present, that she alone has a warm relationship with Donald Trump. Meloni visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club for what both parties called an ‘informal meeting’ at the start of the year. The then President-elect described the Italian as

Will Austria’s asylum seeker surveillance plan backfire?

Austria’s interior minister has announced plans for mass surveillance of Syrian and Afghan asylum seekers in response to a terrorist attack. The incident, which took place on Saturday, saw a Syrian allegedly stab one person to death and injure five others in Villach. According to police, the man –whose rampage was cut short by another Syrian man who intervened – was a legal resident in Austria and not known to authorities.  Gerhard Karner, known for his hard line on security, said ‘mass checks without cause’ of ‘asylum seekers with Syrian and Afghan backgrounds’ were needed to ensure public safety. He said that because the alleged attacker was unknown to authorities, there

New Zealand’s cringeworthy new tourism slogan

‘Everyone must go!’ New Zealand’s new tourism declares, but so far almost everyone seems to be cringing. The prime minister of New Zealand, Christopher Luxon, this week unveiled the latest tagline aimed first at holidaymakers from Australia but also those living further afield. Critics say the wording of the latest marketing campaign sounds like something from a Boxing Day sale, or even a cry of desperation from the back of a typically long toilet queue on one of the country’s frequently crowded hiking trails.  Fewer outsiders are being enticed by New Zealand’s lanscapes than was the case before Covid Luxon, who in a past corporate life was the chief executive

Gareth Roberts

Why the Germans don’t do it better

Germany, not so very long ago, was the example of how to do it. Shiningly spotless and effortlessly efficient – the country where they’d got it right. Today, with its economy doom-spiralling and levels of internal unquiet that look likely to see the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) do very well in this Sunday’s federal election, alles is not looking quite so klar. We must resist the temptation to take any pleasure in German misfortunes. I’m sure they don’t ever smirk at our very similar troubles, and surely don’t even have a word for such a thing.  Germany is being bossed about – and frankly ignored – by the US and

Europe and the death of Pax Americana

If you are still reeling from the shock and awe created by Donald Trump’s foreign policy since taking office, ‘You ain’t seen nothing yet,’ as Ronald Reagan once put it. Trump doesn’t just want to reset trading relations with every country in the world. He wants the world to change its foreign policies to suit the end of Pax Americana – and its replacement with a muscular foreign policy that relies very little, if at all, on the kindness of strangers. It is not Trump who is surrendering to Putin, but Europe Start with the war in Ukraine. Trump’s negotiations with Vladimir Putin tell us less about the two men than

Who shot the world’s first openly gay imam?

Muhsin Hendricks, the world’s ‘first openly gay imam’, was shot dead in Bethelsdorp, South Africa, on Saturday. While the police are still probing the murder, Imam Hendricks had repeatedly cited death threats – including in the 2022 documentary The Radical – owing to radical Muslims finding his preaching, and officiating of same-sex marriages, as an affront to Islam. According to reports, he had recently performed the ceremony of a lesbian couple, and was on his way to officiating the wedding of a Muslim woman with a non-Muslim man, which too is deemed against Islamic teachings. In addition to sanctioning unorthodox marriages, Hendricks’s Al-Ghurbaah Foundation provided support to those marginalised on

British troops won’t help Ukraine

Sir Keir Starmer’s proposal to put British troops on the ground as part of a peacekeeping force in Ukraine is a principled and politically bold move. But the sad reality is that Britain is in no position to act as Ukraine’s peacekeeper. Starmer is playing with an empty deck and singing from obsolete songbook.  Starmer has few options left other than gesture politics Starmer’s offer to put British troops on the ground is, in practical military terms, a very small promise. As former British Army chief Lord Dannatt pointed out last night, the UK’s armed forces are ‘so run down’ that we could not lead any future peacekeeping mission in

John Keiger

Starmer must protect Britain’s defence industry

When David Frost led UK negotiations with the EU on a free trade agreement five years ago, he was supported by a 100-strong Cabinet Office team. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s ‘EU reset unit’, also based in the Cabinet Office, is 100-strong too, including two permanent secretaries. Given Labour’s insistence that it is not seeking to renegotiate Brexit, but merely to improve relations with the EU, why appoint such a large, high-powered unit? Setting aside the harsher criticism that the ‘EU surrender unit’ is a machine to reverse Brexit, government ministers and the PM remain tight-lipped about the officially titled ‘European Union relations secretariat’. It does not appear on the Cabinet

Europe cannot be surprised by Trump’s approach to Ukraine

There’s something about Donald Trump that sends Europeans mad. The President and Vladimir Putin agreed last week to commence talks about ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. From the hysterical reaction, you would have thought Trump had handed Putin the keys to Kyiv. Shrill cries of surrender, betrayal and appeasement are premature; extremely difficult negotiations lie ahead, involving Ukraine, on the precise terms of any deal. And Putin himself has blinked by abandoning many of his pre-conditions for talks set out last year. The mood among European security panjandrums at this weekend’s Munich Security Conference was fraught. European leaders claim to have been blindsided by Trump’s move, and shocked by the

Elon Musk is America’s Trotsky

I never imagined that I would see a real revolution, at least not in the West. Sure, when I was a student, I fantasised, along with a number of my Edinburgh University lecturers, about a socialist revolution in the UK. Expropriate the expropriators! Ban the bosses! Nationalise everything and abolish money. But, of course, nothing so dramatic ever happens in mature liberal democracies. Except that it just has. Okay, the Trump takeover of the US government is hardly a communist revolution, and Elon Musk is not immediately obvious as a reincarnation of Leon Trotsky, but what is happening right now is revolutionary – just not quite in the way my

Europe is ruling itself out of the AI race

I recently reported on a major partnership signed by a German tech startup. Or so I thought. Not long after publication, I got a message from the company: ‘You have wrongly said we were founded in Germany. In fact, we were founded in California. Please correct this.’  That’s strange, I thought. Everyone I spoke to sounded pretty German – and indeed the person I emailed was based at the firm’s Berlin offices. But they were adamant: this was a California-based business. The perception is that America has strong innovation, and Europe has strong regulation I did some digging and discovered the company had been registered in Germany at least a

Stephen Daisley

Israelis and Palestinians will be here again, and again, and again

‘When the Lord returned the captives to Zion,’ Psalm 126 goes, ‘we were like dreamers. Our mouths were filled with laughter and our tongues with songs of joy.’ Watching the images of Alexander Troufanov, Sagui Dekel-Chen, and Iair Horn paraded by their captors after almost 500 days of torment, there was no laughter and not a hint of joy. That the three Israelis have been reunited with their families will bring immense relief to those who know and love them, but it cannot give this nightmare the illusion of a dream. These captives have been returned, but others remain. Iair’s brother Eitan is still in Palestinian hands. Their mother Ruti

France’s churches are burning – and no one seems to care

France’s churches are under attack, yet the media and political establishment are pretending not to notice. Last year, we saw blazes at historic churches in Rouen, Saint-Omer and Poitiers – each one another grim statistic in an escalating crisis. For years, we’ve seen Christian places of worship targeted in acts of arson and vandalism. Yet, until now, official confirmation of the scale of the problem has been curiously absent. That has changed. The French territorial intelligence service has reported a 30 per cent increase in criminal church fires in 2024. That’s not a handful of isolated incidents – it’s a surge. And a deeply troubling one at that. In 2023, there

Could Ukraine descend into civil war?

US President Donald Trump has announced that peace talks with Putin are set to begin ‘immediately’. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says that he has not yet seen a ready US plan for ending the war, it seems that we are moving towards the final stages of the conflict. At some point the guns will fall silent, and the leaders of Ukraine and Russia will sign a peace agreement. But what happens then? Opinions vary, and not everyone is optimistic about how the war will wrap up. In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Polish President Andrzej Duda warned that the war’s end could trigger a surge in international

Mark Galeotti

How seriously will Putin take Ukraine negotiations?

We have no idea whether Vladimir Putin is serious about peace negotiations with Ukraine. He may simply be going through the motions while enjoying the spectacle of the West engaging in mutual recrimination and performative outrage, or he may genuinely feel there are grounds for some kind of agreement. More likely, given his track record as a tactician rather than a strategist, he is simply seeing what opportunities emerge. Nonetheless, his choices of format, venue and representatives may give us some sense of his intentions. His lead negotiator at abortive talks in Istanbul in 2022, for example, was Vladimir Medinsky. A former minister of culture, his main claim to fame

Donald Trump has blown apart America’s failing status quo

Political science uses anaemic jargon. The ‘Overton Window’ frames all topics that at any given moment are deemed to be politically respectable. It moves. However, since Trump’s inauguration on 20 January we need more robust imagery. Potus47 – Mr Trump – is the captain of an ice-bound ship and he has been dynamiting the pack ice to get it free. Sequenced, linked charges have been exploded to create open water leads. The shock waves have global importance. Tariff threats were one stick of dynamite that detonated, particularly those levied on China to push back its gaming of the era of globalisation since the PRC was admitted to the WTO in 2001.

Why Britain is crucial to Ukraine peace talks

Britain has the opportunity to become a master in tightrope diplomacy between Donald Trump and an increasingly alarmed Europe after the 47th president’s blitz of foreign policy announcements. To say that European leaders have been hyperventilating over the dramatic chess move made by Trump in his 90-minute phone call with Vladimir Putin is to put it mildly. Trump has been accused of appeasement a la Neville Chamberlain and his paper of peace following the US president’s seeming surrender to Putin’s two key demands to end the war in Ukraine: permanent retention of ground seized and no future membership of Nato for his suffering neighbour. Horrified leaders and politicians in Europe have

Europe and the death of Nato

There has been no more effective and successful defensive alliance in history than Nato. The unity and determination of Nato’s members meant the Soviet Union understood that the doctrine of ‘Massive Retaliation’ was real: if they attacked, Nato would respond with nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union did not attack. But it is clear from events this week – and, in truth, has been clear for some years – that Nato is now effectively dead as a serious force for defence and deterrence, snuffed out by the myopia and weakness of the European political class. Russia’s invasions of Ukraine, first in 2014 and then in 2022, demonstrate how enfeebled deterrence has

Donald Trump is making the same mistake as Neville Chamberlain

It is easy to forget how popular Neville Chamberlain was in the autumn of 1938. Proclaiming ‘peace in our time’ after signing the Munich Agreement, he was heralded as the deal-maker supreme. A leader who’d averted needless bloodshed and whose critics were merely warmongering naysayers. You don’t need me to tell you the rest of the story, but you might have thought its lessons wouldn’t be so easily forgotten. Today it is Donald Trump casting himself as the bringer of peace to continental Europe. Posting on his Truth Social platform, the president said he’d spoken with Vladimir Putin, and that they two men had ‘agreed to have our respective teams

What Elon Musk can learn from Javier Milei

Did Argentina pave the way for Elon Musk’s Doge? At the very least, Javier Milei’s famous chainsaw has provided a roadmap for the South African billionaire to follow as he tries to slash the size of the US government budget. Musk has spent much of the past few days and weeks decrying supposed ‘fraud’ and ‘abuse’ his team has discovered in its analysis of US government spending, a message he reiterated in his Oval Office interview this week. Set aside his rather peculiar and broad definition of fraud for a moment and a straight line can be drawn between his messaging and Milei’s.  The self-described anarcho-capitalist president waged his successful