Michael Simmons is The Spectator's economics editor. Contact him here.
Another day at the Office for National Statistics (ONS), another apparent data mishap – this time on net migration figures. The agency published revised figures for 2021 to 2024 this morning, which set out a very different picture on who’s been coming in and out of the country. The ‘Boriswave’ was larger than previously thought
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Economics editor Michael Simmons and Yvette Cooper’s former adviser Danny Shaw join Patrick Gibbons to react to the Home Secretary’s plans for asylum reform. Shabana Mahmood’s direct communication style in the Commons yesterday has been praised by government loyalists and right-wingers alike, but her plans have been criticised by figures on the left as apeing
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Advertising legend and Spectator columnist Rory Sutherland joins Michael Simmons to explain why he thinks Britain’s economic problem isn’t income, tax rates or even inequality — it’s property, rent extraction, and a national belief that housing is the safest and smartest place to store wealth.
There were cheers in the Treasury in September when statisticians found an unexpected £2 billion ‘down the back of the sofa.’ The tax man had underreported VAT receipts to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and it meant Britain’s borrowing figures for the current year had been overestimated. A lucky discovery for HMT but an
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Britain is facing a quiet crisis — its data is breaking down, and the government’s numbers are increasingly unreliable. In this episode of Reality Check, economics editor Michael Simmons asks what happens when the state can’t count properly. How can the Bank of England set interest rates or the Treasury balance the books when the
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With two weeks until her Budget, Rachel Reeves has received more bad news: unemployment is now at its highest level since the pandemic. With the Chancellor hinting at income tax rises, could this be dangerous for Labour as it increasingly becomes the party of higher earners? Polling suggests the public would lay the blame for
Britain’s unemployment rate has hit 5 per cent – the highest level since the pandemic. Figures, just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), also show 117,000 payrolled jobs wiped out in the last year. The hiring slowdown seems to be getting worse as what was initially a reaction to the Chancellor’s £25 billion
A year ago, the Chancellor called her £38 billion tax rise a ‘one-and-done’ move. Now she looks set to rinse and repeat, with reports that a 2p increase in income tax is on the table. According to The Times, she has informed the Office for Budget Responsibility that a rise in personal taxation is one
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With three weeks until the Budget, the main political parties have been setting out their economic thinking. Each faces the same bind: anaemic growth, fiscal constraints and uncomfortable exposure to the bond markets. The upshot is that there is less ‘clear blue water’ on the economy between Labour, the Conservatives and Reform. This has left
The Bank of England has held interest rates at four per cent. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted five to four in favour of maintaining the rate. There had been some speculation that the Bank might consider a cut to pre-empt some of the harshest measures expected in this month’s Budget, but the rate-setting committee
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It is three weeks until the Budget – and Rachel Reeves wants to get her narrative out there. The Chancellor held an early morning press conference today to, in her words, ‘set out the circumstances and the principles’ guiding her thinking on 26 November. Her speech followed a familiar pattern. First, there was the evisceration
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Rachel Reeves is preparing for her first major Budget – but is Brexit really to blame for Britain’s black hole? Host Michael Simmons speaks to independent economist Julian Jessop about the OBR’s productivity downgrade, Labour’s tax plans, and whether Reeves is right to point the finger at Brexit.
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With Reform leading in the polls, Nigel Farage is determined to ensure that nothing can impede its growth. This morning he sought to bolster his credibility on an area that the Tories think could be his Achilles heel: the economy. Reform’s £90 billion programme of tax cuts promised at the last election has been constantly
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Happy All Hallows’ Eve, everyone – and there is something spooky going on with Rachel Reeves and a property in Dulwich. Yesterday she was leading the news after admitting to renting out her family home following the move into No. 11 without getting the required licence from Southwark Council. There are a number of mitigating
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On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Luke Coppen looks at a new musical subgenre of Roman Catholic black metal; Mary Wakefield celebrates cartoonist Michael Heath as he turns 90 – meaning he has drawn for the Spectator for 75 years; looking to Venezuela, Daniel McCarthy warns Trump about the perils of regime change; Michael Simmons
Are the rich fleeing Britain? That’s what the numbers suggest, but some activist groups have hit back saying that the data is dodgy. For the second episode of Reality Check, The Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons explains why the data shows that the wealthy are leaving Britain, and why this matters for everyone else.
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There are a few sore heads at 22 Old Queen Street this morning because it was The Spectator’s Parliamentarian of the Year Awards last night. From Lucy Powell’s jibe at Morgan McSweeney (and Tim Shipman, for that matter) to Robert Jenrick’s jokes falling flat, it was an eventful evening of good-natured hazing, naval-gazing and –
There were cheers in the Treasury last month as the nation’s statisticians discovered a spare £3 billion down the back of the sofa. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) admitted that VAT receipts had been under-reported by £1 billion last year and £2 billion this year. The newly found cash will go some way to
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Kemi Badenoch continues to look more confident at PMQs – although there are always going to be some easy goals when you lead on the economy. Today she pressed the Prime Minister on Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance – which he dodged – as well as repeating her
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There are reports that the OBR will downgrade Britain’s productivity growth forecasts, increasing the size of the black hole facing the Chancellor at the end of the month. This continues the spate of bad news for the Chancellor on the economy – but can we trust the figures? James Heale and Michael Simmons join Patrick
