Has migration to the UK peaked? Net migration in the year to June hit 672,000, down from 745,000 in 2022. Some 1.2 million people came to Britain whilst 508,000 moved overseas. The ONS says it’s too early to call this a downward trend, but that immigration seems to be slowing whilst emigration is increasing.
Perhaps the biggest story though is the size of some of the revisions. The ONS had previously put the net migration figure for 2022 at just over 600,000. Today they found 140,000 more people and revised it up to 745,000. This is a staggering change. Taken with today’s figure, that new peak suggests numbers are coming down. But how much can we trust the ONS’s estimates? Will today’s number be revised up in six months’ time?
According to the latest figures, almost everyone arriving in the UK was from outside the EU (some 968,000) with a growing number of these non-EU nationals arriving for work (33 per cent compared with 23 per cent a year ago). Most of those workers have arrived on health and care visas to take jobs in the NHS and care homes. Meanwhile, those arriving through humanitarian routes such as the Ukraine and Hong Kong resettlement schemes decreased from 19 per cent of arrivals to just 9 per cent.
Whilst migration may be slowing, 627,000 is still a pretty large number and given Britain's workforce problems – with some 5.5 million on out-of-work benefits – it’s no surprise that companies and the health service are increasingly relying on migrants to fill jobs. It’s an easy economic fix for the government too. The Office for Budget Responsibility points out that migrants tend to have higher participation rates and so provide a productivity boost. If cities like Liverpool continue to have as many as 18 per cent of their working population on benefits no wonder migrants are flocking in.
The largest group of non-EU arrivals though was study visas, with nearly two in every five arriving to take up a place at a university or college. This could suggest that migration will stay at high levels for longer because – as the OBR pointed out yesterday – whilst students have tended not to hang around (historically 80 per cent leave within five years) now more and more are making the move permanent and transitioning to work visas.
A growing number of migrants are bringing their children and elderly parents with them too. In the year to June 2019 dependants accounted for just 6 per cent of non-EU student immigrants and 37 per cent of non-EU workers. Those figures are now 25 and 48 per cent respectively. In the most recent figures the top five nationalities coming to the UK were Indian, Nigerian, Chinese, Pakistani and Ukrainian. Some 31,000 arrived through the Ukrainian sponsorship and family schemes.
Overall, these new estimates confirm a change in immigration in the last couple of years, a strategic decision the government says very little about. Previously European migrants almost accounted for all UK immigration, now the majority of migrants are from non-EU countries. Whole families are coming where it used to just be individuals and students are staying for longer. But as Britain ages and sickness in the workforce goes on unaddressed it’s unlikely we’ll see a sustained drop in immigration anytime soon.
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