People respond to incentives. And in market economies, few incentives top profits. In the energy industry, oil prices are a crucial determinant of drillers’ profits — and therefore, their behaviour. When a supply glut crushed Brent crude oil prices by -77 per cent from June 2014 to January 2016, drillers focused on areas where they could reduce costs, shuttering rigs they couldn’t run profitably.[i] Yet now, with prices snapping back 194 per cent from their low, incentives have changed.[ii] And, accordingly, oil drillers are deploying assets globally, putting rigs back to work and expanding activity. Seeing that, you may wonder if UK production is due for an upturn, boosting the British economy with it. But in our view, it is unlikely oil’s upturn will have a marked effect on UK production absent much higher prices, which we don’t expect.