Will tonight’s 1922 Committee meeting be a firework display of Tory anger? Theresa May has decided to face her MPs after days of feverish speculation that some of them might be about to force a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. There are plenty who have much to complain about on many different subjects. But chances are that this won’t be the forum where those complaints are really aired, or the Prime Minister’s authority improved.
For one thing, it’s much easier to give an angry anonymous quote to a Sunday newspaper than it is to shout directly at the Prime Minister in front of your colleagues. For another, the meeting will be chaired by Graham Brady, who is unlikely to encourage a show trial atmosphere. There are also Tories who are very unhappy with the state of their party’s leadership but who were nonetheless disgusted by the language used by some of the plotters at the weekend, and this has caused them to step back a little.
The whips and those around May will be ensuring that there are enough loyal MPs banging desks and making supportive statements both during and after the meeting that it appears to be an anti-climax compared to the great confrontation that some have billed it to be.
And so the week will probably wear on as the past few weeks have done too: starting with a wave of rage on a Sunday, cooling as the days in Parliament go by, before starting up again at the weekend. The Conservatives seem to be stuck in a tidal pattern at the moment, rushing back and forth between two moods, rather than flowing towards a particular conclusion.
But if May leaves an apparently successful meeting feeling she has resolved matters, then she should think again. It’s not just the frustration with the Brexit negotiations that’s causing her grief, but the way in which Number 10 is communicating with MPs. As James pointed out on our podcast, some MPs have taken it rather badly that they’ve been summoned to Number 10 for meetings about Brexit, only to find that they’re meeting the Prime Minister’s deputy chief of staff, rather than someone who has been elected. I’ve also spoken to MPs who have been baffled by the guest lists for some of the meetings, as they’ve found themselves stuck in a group of backbenchers who have totally different views to them and who therefore turn the conversation either into a shouting match or a festival of loyalty.
All of these things sound like small complaints, but they really do matter to Conservative MPs. The Party can behave a bit like 14 year olds at a disco, getting upset if the Prime Minister hasn’t looked at them recently. May could complain about this or she could accept that this is how the Tories were under David Cameron, and this is what she has to deal with now.
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