Nicola Sturgeon inched Scotland closer to a re-run of its independence referendum today by reacting angrily to Theresa May’s Brexit speech. Having already put indyref2 ‘on the table’ – but not for this year – Scotland’s First Minister said the Prime Minister’s speech today had made another independence vote ‘more likely’.
‘The UK Government cannot be allowed to take us out of the EU and the single market regardless of the impact on our economy, jobs, living standards and our reputation as an open, tolerant country, without Scotland having the ability to choose between that and a different future,’ the First Minister said. And she added: ‘With her comments today, the Prime Minister has only succeeded in making that choice more likely.’
Clearly riled by being left on the Brexit sidelines, Ms Sturgeon also declared:
‘We have not yet seen evidence that Scotland’s voice is being listened to or our interests taken into account. ‘That must change in short order if there is to be any confidence that Scotland’s interests can be met within the UK. And if, as the PM has now signalled, the UK is not staying in the single market, then there must be serious engagement on our proposal to allow Scotland to do so. ‘So while the Scottish Government will continue to take decisions in an orderly and responsible way, one thing should remain crystal clear – the Tory Government cannot be allowed to act against Scotland’s wishes and our interests, and reject all attempts at compromise.’
It was a pretty fiery response yet it still stopped short of the much threatened indyref2. Why? Because Mrs May has still not completely ruled out a separate Scottish Brexit deal.
If the UK cannot remain in the single market – which Mrs May confirmed today – then, Ms Sturgeon argues, Scotland should be allowed to stay, on its own. Mrs May didn’t completely shoot that down today – she said she was still considering the Scottish plan – but it seems inconceivable that Mrs May would take the UK out of the single market and give Scotland an opt out.
It is that hesitation, that apparent, probably theoretical concession to Scotland, saying that she is still considering this option, that has stayed Ms Sturgeon’s hand. The First Minister knows she cannot announce another indyref while her separate Scottish solution is, in theory, still being considered by ministers in London.
So that’s where we are. The UK will not remain in the single market and it is extremely, extremely unlikely that Scotland will be allowed to do so on its own. As a result, Ms Sturgeon has made it clear that she is closer than ever to calling indyref2 but can’t do so while Mrs May has not ruled out a Scottish deal.
So, are we going to get another vote on independence? Almost certainly. And when will it happen? Probably next year – although, to use the language so popular of our politicians right now, that remains ‘highly likely’ but is definitely not definite, not yet anyway.
Comments