One of the key aims of this SNP conference in Aberdeen is for the party to reach out to those who are worried that voting for the party in the Holyrood elections will raise the spectre of a second referendum that many voters are wary of, given how divisive the first one was in some families and communities. To that end, Nicola Sturgeon was careful to use her speech to reassure nervous listeners that the SNP wasn’t planning another referendum any time soon:
‘To propose another referendum in the next parliament without strong evidence that a significant number of those who voted No have changed their minds would be wrong and we won’t do it.’
But she explained that she thought support for independence will continue to rise as the Tories pursue their policies and that therefore ‘if there is strong and consistent evidence that people have changed their minds and that independence has become the choice of a clear majority in this country, then we have no right to rule out a referendum and we won’t do that either’. She painted democracy as an irresistible force, which it is, but it’s especially irresistible when it leads to your party’s desired outcome.
But how does the party really gauge that there is ‘strong and consistent evidence’ to show people have changed their minds about independence? The UK voting to leave the EU without a majority of Scots voting the same way would be one trigger, though SNP sources made clear that Sturgeon would be campaigning against Brexit, even if it would help bring a second referendum on independence closer. But those sources were less keen to set out what the evidence of a change in public mood would be. But what is clear is that the SNP won’t promise a referendum within a certain timeframe in its manifesto, but it will hold another one, when the polls suggest that it’s ‘worth holding’, i.e. that it will result in Scottish independence.
But there’s no doubting the SNP’s passion for another referendum. If you had any doubts, just listen to this speech from Tommy Sheppard MP, who spoke in the debate that immediately followed on the Scotland Bill.
He was furious, accusing David Cameron of having a ‘conflict with the people of Scotland’ and that ‘every time they say no a reasonable proposal, then they are fuelling the support for the ‘Yes’ position the next time that is put to the Scottish people. And every time they say no to something, they are increasing our ambition to have everything!’.
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