On 7th February 2000, for the first time in American history, a First Lady (a sitting one at that) took to the podium to announce her candidacy for public office – a New York Senate bid that would no doubt soon propel her to the White House.
And so began perhaps the longest electoral campaign in American history. Cruelly, or at least unexpectedly, denied the Democratic nomination in 2008 – surely, just surely, 2016 was her year for the party faithful to come a’begging.
But ever since her formal announcement in April, things have not looked good for Team Hillary. The Benghazi Committee, which began as an investigation into the deaths of American citizens in 2012, has morphed into an ongoing saga around her use of a private email server as Secretary of State.
Justified or not, the ensuing furore has highlighted just about all of Mrs Clinton’s weaknesses: that she is sneaky and mistrustful, willing to break the rules for personal gain. Even the constant denials of wrongdoing have proven damaging: a recent poll showed that 58 per cent of Americans believe she is lying about her emails, including 31 per cent of Democrats. Her net approval rating, according to Quinnipiac University polls, now languishes at -14 per cent. She is also performing weakly against the potential Republican candidates (with the possible exception of a certain Donald J Trump) in most swing state polling. With Clinton due to testify before the Benghazi Committee late this month, it seems things can only get worse.
But the problem for the Democratic Party establishment is that – unlike in 2008 – all their eggs seem to be in the Clinton basket. Of the 250 Democratic Senators, Congressmen and Governors, she has already received the backing of 149, with just five going to other candidates. Just two Congressmen have openly backed Senator Bernie Sanders’ surging anti-establishment campaign.
But the eyes of certain powers that be are beginning to wander elsewhere – to someone who is absent from tonight’s first Democratic primary debate on CNN. If 2008 was Hillary’s ‘turn’, Joe Biden’s was probably in 1988. The young and attractive Delaware Senator was even the favourite for a while, before being caught plagiarising a Neil Kinnock speech (“I’m the first Biden in a thousand generations to get a college and a graduate degree.”) Surely the idea of a man first elected under Richard Nixon, who would be 74 on the day of his inauguration, running as the Democratic standard-bearer for the White House is a little unlikely?
But Democrats looking at the numbers couldn’t be faulted for wondering. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, while Hillary is stuck in a virtual tie with Jeb Bush (the Republican leads by 0.6 points), Biden holds a 6 point lead.
At the heart of this lies the extraordinary personal popularity of a man who has been at the centre of Washington politics for over four decades. Quinnipiac found the Vice President to have a +16% per cent net approval, the best of any candidates polled in either party.
Sure, Joe Biden is gaffe-prone – but in an era where the American public seem heartily sick of manufactured politicians, even that might be a strength (as it has been, to some extent, for Mr Trump). This man who lost a wife and a daughter just weeks after his first election, and then his son and political heir Beau to cancer earlier this year – yet still soldiers on – who as a Senator made the daily three hour round-trip by train to his home in Delaware, in order to have a real family life – who grew up middle class in the steel town of Scranton, Pennsylvania, and in the age of billionaire politics, perhaps still has little more than $500,000 to his name. Yes, unlikely as it may sound, this veteran who has dedicated his life to politics fits the bill for our anti-politics age.
But he will need to hurry. Skipping the first debate tonight is a far from ideal place from which to launch a candidacy – but what if large numbers of Democrats look up on the stage and fail to see a winner? My instinct is that there are enough voices whispering in his ear highlighting Hillary Clinton’s many flaws and enough polls pointing a path to the White House that, sooner rather than later, Joe may well decide to take the plunge.
And as so unlikely a source as Rupert Murdoch has said in recent months, if he runs, Biden will be hard to beat.
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