Will Tony Blair’s intervention into the Labour leadership contest really make a difference? The former Prime Minister argues in today’s Guardian that this is a far worse crisis for his party than the 1980s, and uses what Angela Eagle last night described as ‘apocalyptic language’ to warn members of the danger the party is in. He writes:
‘This is directed to longstanding members and those who have joined but without an agenda. They’re still a majority and they have to exercise leadership now to save the party. It doesn’t matter whether you’re on the left, right or centre of the party, whether you used to support me or hate me. But please understand the danger we’re in.’
Blair tries to appeal to members’ sense of doing what is right by the public, writing:
‘If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation. If he wins the leadership, the public will at first be amused, bemused and even intrigued. But as the years roll on, as Tory policies bite and the need for an effective opposition mounts – and oppositions are only effective if they stand a hope of winning – the public mood will turn to anger. They will seek to punish us. They will see themselves as victims not only of the Tory government but of our self-indulgence.’
It is, unsurprisingly, a well-argued piece, but this still doesn’t answer the question of whether Blair will help or hinder the Stop Corbyn cause in this contest. He certainly won’t dissuade many people who have made up their minds to support Corbyn: a hatred of Blair and ‘what he did to the party’ is a driving force for many of them. But he says he is pitching to ‘longstanding members and those who have joined but without an agenda’. Will those members be swayed by his intervention or will they, like Corbynites, feel as though they are fed up of being told what to do by politicians who they feel have damaged politics, even if they have a greater appreciation of what it means to have a leader who wins elections.
Yvette Cooper is making a similar intervention this morning, finally turning on Corbyn, which is admirable but something the party’s other leadership contenders should all have done from the very beginning. Even if Blair is right to intervene – and who can blame him for not wanting to sit on his hands while his party is destroyed? – all these pleas with members seem a bit desperate and last minute. Many in the party thought that bringing Jeremy Corbyn onto the election ballot would help the other contenders expose his arguments as being flawed and unappealing to the electorate. But then the contenders refused to confront Corbyn, and have allowed him to build momentum. It’s difficult to stop a juggernaut once it has started thundering down a slope: and even giants like Tony Blair are realising that now.
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