The Conservatives’ Heathrow conundrum

The Tories are facing a Heathrow problem. With Zac Goldsmith joining the race for the London mayoral nomination today, the idea of the Conservatives supporting a Heathrow expansion is becoming harder to envisage. The final recommendation from Howard Davies’ Airport Commission is due this summer and the Tories are expected to put it to a vote in the Commons. But what if Davies proposes an expansion of Heathrow — either in the form of a third runway or the Heathrow Hub? Although the Airport Commission’s new review into air quality has been interpreted as a sign that Davies is edging towards Gatwick, Heathrow is still on the cards. If the party leadership is faced with a vote on whether to back Davies and Heathrow, they risk a split with their London mayoral candidates. Aside from Sol Campbell, who hasn’t announced any policies yet, all of the declared candidates so far are anti-Heathow:

• Andrew Boff — GLA member: As with the other members of the London Assembly, Boff is against Heathrow expansion — see this tweet bemoaning that Labour and the Lib Dems failed to vote for an amendment ruling out Heathrow expansion.
• Sol Campbell — footballer: Campbell does not appear to have announced any policy positions, so his position on airport expansion and Heathrow remains uncertain. But would he go against the others?
• Stephen Greenhalgh —Deputy Mayor for Policing. Along with other Conservatives in the London Assembly, Greenhalgh is against expanding Heathrow and was a founding member of an anti-Heathrow pressure group.
• Zac Goldsmith — MP for Richmond: Recently describing himself as ‘the most outspoken and active campaigner against Heathrow’s plans for a third runway,’ Goldsmith was expected to trigger a by-election if the government decided to back Heathrow. His mayoral campaign will dead set against Heathrow and the Tories will be acutely aware that it’ll have to be off the cards if he the mayoral candidate.
• Ivan Massow — entrepreneur and campaigner. In an article for the Huffington Post, Massow said he doesn’t believe Davies will recommend a third runway and has a preference for expanding Stansted, Gatwick and Luton in the interim period — with a view to building a Boris Island-style super airport in the future.

Plus, the incumbent Mayor of London Boris Johnson is anti-Heathrow and will be lobbying the government not to support it. As well as Goldsmith in Richmond Park, other Tory MPs in London such as Justine Greening in Putney, James Berry in Kingston and Jane Ellison in Battersea will be campaigning against it. The Tory manifesto does not bind the party to vote on Heathrow but promises some action:

‘We will deliver on our National Infrastructure Plan and respond to the Airports Commission’s final report.’

It’s hard to see how else the party intends to ‘respond’ to Davies’ Commission besides a Commons vote. There is certainly no appetite for a referendum. The Tories are delighted that in Goldsmith, they finally have a potential candidate who has some of the Boris star factor and ability to beat Labour. But he’s also going to to put Heathrow front and centre of his campaign.