Most Conservatives I have spoken to in the last couple of hours are optimistic, hoping the prospect of RedEd in power has inspired a higher turnout amongst Tory voters. The Tories could still win, the polls could be as wrong as they were in 1992. But my concern is about the campaign. I hate to say that I think the Labour party fought the better one (not saying much, admittedly). Just as after the Scottish referendum I felt depressed that the unionists had relied so heavily on negativity, I find it depressing that the Tory campaign relied on anti-SNP sentiment. Yes, it has proved the most effective card they played – but let’s not pretend that it was inspiring.
Ed Miliband is utterly wrong on almost everything and his government would be a Hollande-style calamity. But his campaign was not one never ending bacon sandwich, as so many on the right thought it would be. His non-dom pledge was strong, captured imaginations and set the tone. David Cameron’s decision to pre-announce his resignation in 2020 also set the tone of his campaign: people asking if he really wanted to win. This, plus his lacklustre TV performances, led to the criticism of his lack of passion – which he tried to remedy these last few days with performances which my colleague Hugo Rifkind has compared to faking an orgasm. The Tories bet on Miliband being a disaster, and Cameron being superb. Miliband was nowhere near as bad as they feared; Cameron nowhere near as good as they hoped.
Yes, the #EdStone was a humiliation – but plenty of us on the right imagined that Labour’s campaign would be a veritable Stonehenge of #EdStones. Miliband correctly bet that there is a mood of rising left-wing populism, and he gave expression to that mood. The case for popular capitalism hasn’t been made; the election campaign identified a massive weakness in the conservative message. Miliband did well by virtue of expectations: he had been attacked so relentlessly by the media that people’s opinion of him could only rise. All he had to do was turn up to these debates without the help of a life support machine.
Miliband has proven himself to be steely and incredibly resilient, and even passionate. Utterly naïve and mistaken, but still sincere and in politics for the right reasons. Now, Labour may do abysmally tonight, the Tories may surprise everyone – if so, Miliband will be written off as an abject failure. History is written quickly, and pundits like to make out as if every result was inevitable. But I really do think that we on the right will be deluding ourselves if we remember Miliband’s campaign or his leadership as an unalloyed disaster. He got a lot of things right, especially his focus on inequality and on those being left behind by the economic recovery. He has the wrong answers, but at least he recognises the problem. Conservatives need to do and say a lot more about this: especially more about those who believe they have swapped the trap of unemployment for the trap of low pay. Tories will go to bed tonight will be wondering: why, if the economy is doing so well and the facts are on our side, do the polls show the two parties neck-in-neck? I suspect the answer is that Ed Miliband has simply done a better job at communicating his party’s values, and asking people to vote with him if they share those values. Next time, the Conservatives should really try to do the same.
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