Politicians and commentators of all varieties agree: the next election is nigh-on impossible to predict. Even the grand Tory pollster Lord Ashcroft has refused to publicly say what he thinks, stating today only that he reckons ‘it’s going to be quite exciting’. Instead of offering us his thoughts on who will win, Ashcroft has posted online all of his constituency level polling since May 2014. We’ve already reported on some of these polls but it’s worth revisiting some of the seats, because they offer an insight into some of the trends that may play out in the election.
Politicians and commentators of all varieties agree: the next election is nigh-on impossible to predict. Even the grand Tory pollster Lord Ashcroft hasrefused to publicly say what he thinks will happen, stating today only that he reckons ‘it’s going to be quite exciting’. Instead of offering us his thoughts on who will win, Ashcroft has posted online all of his constituency-level polling since May 2014. We’ve already reported on some of these polls but it’s worth revisiting some of the seats, because they offer an insight into some of the trends that may play out in the election.
Great Yarmouth – Ukip take a seat?
Ranked third by experts Matthew Goodwin and Rob Ford as one of the most Ukip friendly seats, Great Yarmouth is currently represented by the Conservative Housing Minister Brandon Lewis. In the four years between May 2010 and May 2014, Ashcroft’s polling suggests there was a six per cent swing from the Conservatives to Labour. By July 2014, this swing had dropped to 2.5 per cent. But the most interesting numbers are for Ukip: in 2010, the party received 5 per cent of the vote. By July 2014, this was up to 31 per cent, putting the party second to the Conservatives. Expect to see plenty of kitchen sinks hurled at this constituency.
Berwick Upon Tweed – Tories taking seats from the Lib Dems?
If you want to see whether the Conservatives will give their coalition partners a good kicking, Berwick will be a seat to watch. Represented by Sir Alan Beith since 1973, this seat has long been in the Tories’ sights. Given that Beith is retiring, the Tories are optimistic about their chances of taking Berwick — as evidenced by the long overdue widening of the A1 road in the Autumn Statement. Ashcroft’s polling suggests a 5 per cent swing from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives between 2010 and September last year.
Hampstead and Kilburn – Labour on the rise?
In 2010, this seat was a three-way marginal — resulting in a knife-edge 0.1 per cent majority for Labour. It was one of the seats the Conservatives should really have won but the Tories shouldn’t get their hopes up for 2015. According to Ashcroft, there was a 5.5 per cent swing by May 2014 and an 8.5 per cent swing by August 2014. The Tories have hovered around 30 per cent while the Lib Dems’ vote has more than halved since the last election. Notably, the Greens barely registered at all in 2010 yet in August last year, but they are now on six per cent of the vote.
Eastleigh – Ukip splitting the Tory vote?
This Hampshire seat may show how Ukip is harming the Conservative vote. In 2010, Chris Huhne returned this seat for the Lib Dems with an eight-point lead over the Conservatives. Since then, Ukip have jumped from 4 per cent to 21 per cent of the vote. Labour have been pushed into fourth place, leaving Ukip snapping at the Tories’ heals at 21 per cent. According to Ashcroft, this represents a 3.5 per cent swing from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems.
Oxford West & Abingdon – Lib Dem vote collapse
Nicola Blackwood won this seat in 2010 with a 0.3 per cent majority, swiping it from under the noses of the Lib Dems. Many assumed she would struggle to hold onto the seat, but Ashcroft’s polling suggests that the collapsing Lib Dem vote might benefit her. While Labour have added seven points onto their vote share, the seat has seen a 4 per cent swing to the Tories between 2010 and September 2014. Although the Greens and Ukip are now making single digit appearances, the Tories are now eight points ahead of a seat they once assumed would be lost in 2015.
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