Could George Osborne be in line for a genuine windfall? The Chancellor is getting quite good at conjuring fake ones (Post Office pensions, raiding £35 billion from the Bank of England) but he has yet to sell the 4G licenses. This could be more significant than next month’s mini-Budget. The stunning success of Ireland’s 4G auction (here) suggests that the UK auction may yield a lot more than is currently expected.
A decade ago, governments world over pocketed massive windfalls auctioning the 3G licenses to mobile operators. This time Ofcom has put a reserve of £1.3 billion. But the Irish government expected to get just €170 million from its licenses. In the end, it raised €482 million in upfront fees with €373 million more to come by the end of the next decade. The Office for Budget Responsibility has penciled in quite a startling range for the UK: between £1.4 billion and £6.7
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