There has been a dramatic turnaround in the military situation in Libya. The rebels are
now within 30 miles of Tripoli and the consensus is that Colonel Gaddafi’s days are numbered. The
rebels have taken the strategically vital town of Zawiyah, which lies on the road between Tunisia and Tripoli, upon which Gaddafi relies for supplies. The town’s oil refineries are also of
crucial importance in this conflict. With his communications shorn, the noose appears to be tightening around the Colonel’s isolated throat.
This turn of events has taken observers by surprise. Just two weeks ago, Westminster types were blithe in their assertions that the end was still far off. There was no reason to disbelieve them: the rebel military effort had stalled, Islamists were conducting assassinations in Benghazi, representatives of the National Transition Council were throwing shoes at Tunisian officials during peace talks and council leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil had just sacked his cabinet. In short, the outlook looked atrocious.
The shift in tactical initiative exposes the scale of Gaddafi’s weakness. But, as Con Coughlin notes, Tripoli will be well defended by arch-loyalists who will fight to the death. The rebels may not have the strength to overcome the fanaticism that will be entrenched in Tripoli, so the jaded West is apparently seeking a negotiated settlement to avoid a bloodbath.
Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell and his NATO counterparts have been tasked with ensuring that the country does not degenerate into chaos. But it’s far from clear that the rebels have the requisite political cohesion to negotiate and govern. A post-Gaddafi Libya may hold even greater perils than the Mad Dog.
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