Luis Moreno-Ocampo of the International Criminal Court has said that Colonel Gaddafi,
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi and spy chief Abdullah al-Sanussi have the greatest responsibility for the “widespread and systematic attacks” on civilians in Libya. The prosecutor has therefore
asked the ICC to issue warrants for their arrest.
The move comes as rebels claim they now have full control of Misrata and scored victories in Zintan, south-east of Tripoli. A senior officer told me he thought Colonel Gaddafi would be toppled in less than six months. But if he does not fall, the ICC move may become problematic. For if warrants are issued, the Libyan dictator has little way out but to fight to the very end.
The West can hardly be seen to undermine the ICC, especially as they referred the matter to the court in the first place. But that also means they cannot offer Colonel Gaddafi a way out in the same way as before. This is the same dilemma the West faced over Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic, who was indicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for The Hague, a sister court of the ICC. That ended well, with the warrant helping to first pressure, isolate, topple and finally apprehend the Serbian president
But other indictments have been less successful. The ICC has long wanted Joseph Kony, but the indictment has had little effect on the fighting; indeed, some argue it has made the elusive rebel less likely to sue for peace.
That said, the ICC is right to investigate the events if they have enough evidence to issue a warrant for Colonel Gaddafi. It is right to seek to punish the murder of civilians, and the indictment will make the Libyan leader more isolated. Even loyalists will realise there is no future with him. And that may prove to be a key factor in his eventual fall.
Should Gaddafi genuinely sue for peace, a deal can still be struck. Ugandan President Yoweri Musveni has said Joseph Kony would not be handed over to the ICC if he signs a peace deal. A future Libyan government could offer the same promise. Whether a post-Gaddafi leadership would hold to such a promise is a different matter. But Colonel Gaddafi should have thought about that before he started killing defenceless civilians.
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