Obvious John Rentoul bait as this may be, the answer is still a definite No. Actually that’s not quite fair. Nick Clegg and at least some of his parliamentary colleagues are serious; much of the party membership and, above all, the people who often vote Lib Dem are not. That’s one thing to take from the revealing exchange James reports:
The most political part of the Lib Dem electorate is, I suspect, the lefties scunnered by Tony Blair who thought they were buying into a more radical, truly left-wing, party when they hitched their colours to the Lib Dem mast. For all his occasional sanctimony, these people severely misjudged Nick Clegg.But much of the rest of the Lib Dem vote is an apolitical vote. They receive the votes of people like my mother (when she remembers to vote). That is, people who have a low opinion of policitcs and don’t like to have politics intruding upon anything, anywhere, anytime. This is scarcely a disreputable position. Indeed it would be grand indeed if politics did not so intrude upon so much. Nevertheless, it does. It bloody does.
Unfortunately it seems as though a good number of Lib Dem voters have decided that, all things considered chaps, they’d rather not be in government. That way they’d be able to nurture their delusions, pruning and feeding and watering them free from the awkward realities and inconveniences of government. That’s their right but they shouldn’t be so shocked that the party leadership doesn’t share this analysis.
Which means that I agree with a good deal of Fraser’s analysis. I’d add, or repeat in fact, that 15% of the vote for a properly Liberal party would not be a bad or depressing destination for Clegg. It is, again, about the maximum the German Free Democrats ever win and that, surely, is the model Clegg must hope to emulate.
Of course, getting to that 15% – which would be enough, I think, if properly concentrated in the right areas to maintain a good number of Liberals at Westminster – or even beyond it will be easier if the Tory party drifts to the right. Clegg’s future, then, is oddly and partly dependent upon Cameronism losing ground within the Conservative party (eventually). That’s the longer-term view; in the short to medium term Clegg needs the government to be – and be seen to be – a success if he’s to persuade his sceptical party that, dash it, this governing lark is worth even half a mass.
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