They’re still counting the results of the Irish election but it’s clear that, as expected, the story of the day is Fianna Fail’s collapse. Enda Kenny, who’s not half as youthful as he looks (he’s the Father of the House and has been a TD since 1975), will be Taoiseach but the election of 75 or so Fine Gael TD’s should not be taken as much of an endorsement of Fine Gael’s policies, far less as support for fiscal austerity or, frankly, much else.
Fianna Fail has mislaid half a million votes since they won 78 seats on 41% of the vote in 2007. Fianna Fail’s vote has collapsed to 17% of first preferences. Those votes have been more or less equally divided between Fine Gael, Labour and Independents (some of whom are lapsed or disgruntled Fianna Fail men). Fine Gael, on 36%, and Labour have both increased their share of first preferences by eight points. In other words Enda Kenny, starting from a higher base, has been no more persuasive than Eamon Gilmore who, it is generally agreed, ran a complacent, lacklustre campaign that has been mildly disappointing even while delivering Labour’s best-ever result. (A failure exemplified by Gilmore’s apparent failure – there’s a recount underway – to bring in a second candidate in Dun Laoghaire.)
Or, to put it another way, Fine Gael’s record-breaking performance is still also mildly underwhelming. There were great successes (taking four of five seats in Kenny’s Mayo seat for instance) but there’s little substantive difference between winning 65 and 75 seats. They’ll still need a coalition and it seems most unlikely – though not impossible – that Shane Ross’s band of “centrist independents” will be enough to nudge Fine Gael over the line. So it will have to be a deal with Labour.
Moreover, faced with an open goal Fine Gael was still only able to emulate, effectively, Fianna Fail’s 2007 performance. This does not bode well for Kenny. He says he wants to send a message to “the rest of the world” that “Ireland is open for business” and that’s fine but renegotiating the bailout deal (“bad for Ireland” and also “bad for Europe”) is a tricky proposition. What happens if the Germans say Nein?
On the other hand, some renegotiation is required, not least to cushion the blow when Fine Gael open the books and announce that, actually, everything is even worse than everyone feared. That’s one way of lowering expectations but, unfortunately, expectations are pretty low already and inviting people to feel hopeless and despairing is not a particulrly attractive political strategy. Doubtless that’s why Kenny has been trying so hard to seem statesmanlike: calm, reassuring, authorative and in control. The trouble is that when you press him on the detail you get the disconcerting sense that there’s less there than he and his party would like you to believe.
Still, it’s a long way from Fine Gael’s nadir when they had barely thirty seats and just three in Dublin. Ther revival in the capital – where they’ve run neck and neck with Labour – has been vital. Few victories were as symbolic as Paschal Donohoe’s topping the poll in Dublin Central – the very heart of Bertie Ahern’s base. Fianna Fail’s vote in Dublin collapsed to little more than 12% and no fewer than 12 of their 13 Dublin TDs lost their seats. Among the victim, Sean Haughey – the son and grandson of Taoiseachs Charlie Haughey and Sean Lemass. Brian Lenihan, the outgoing Finance Minister, is the sole surviving Fianna Fail TD in Dublin.
The scale of Fianna Fail’s collapse in Dublin overshadows the fact that actually its vote held up surprisingly well in much of the rest of the country. As Labour have discovered Dublin is not enough to win but you can’t, as the other parties also know, win without it. Still, in much of the country Fianna Fail’s vote remained competitive even if nationwide they received precious few transfers. Their problem: Dublin and the young. How many of Fianna Fail’s voters will still be alive in four years time?
Yet it would be a mistake to write Fianna Fail off entirely. Some of the missing half million will come home. Some will be scunnered by the coalition’s looming unpopularity. Fianna Fail’s problem, however, is that it’s not likely to be in a position to win any kind of majority any time soon and, for that matter, now lacks obvious coalition partners even if it were in a position to lead a government.
That’s for the future. Enda Kenny wanted the ball and now he has it. It would be a mistake to suppose, however, that this is an endorsement of Fine Gael’s Five Point Plan. They will claim a mandate and that’s fine but it’s neither as broad nor as deep a mandate as many may suppose or as the headline figures might indicate. “Better than Fianna Fail” is grand but it’s not much of an endorsement, far less a vote of confidence. How could it be when Fien Gael’s vote increased no more rapidly than Labour’s? The electorate knows two things: it doesn’t want Fianna Fail and it’s not really sold on any of the possible replacements. That’s a cue for more wailing and gnashing of teeth and general lamentation.
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