I hope one can still use cooking metaphors in this new age of low-key rhetoric, right? Anyway, this has been another Bad Week for Palin Inc. She’s been traduced this week and the statement she’s released today, while typically punchy, isn’t likely to change anyone’s opinion. Nevertheless, the fall-out from the Tucson shootings has damaged the erstwhile Governor and added weight to the sense, fair or not, that nominating her may be more trouble than it’s worth. I think her prospects of winning the Republican nomination have been sliding quietly for some time (whatever the polls say) and this week’s events do nothing to change that. Among the reasons why I think she’s done:
1. Television is not enough. Her appearances on Fox and her Alaska-themed reality show are grand ways of maintaining her public profile. Unfortunately neither helps her political ambitions; indeed they may prove counter-productive. It’s good for Brand Palin as a commercial enterprise; bad for Palin the Politician. Even these days, celebrity is not normally enough. And by blurring the line between the politician and the entertainer, Palin devalues her political currency. The more she’s seen as a TV figure the less credible she is as a politician.
2. Momentum is not quite a myth. And she don’t have it. George Will was never going to endorse Sarah Palin and nor was Charles Krauthammer. But while Will may not be as influential as he once was there are plenty of people who still listen to Dr Charles. Now that it’s ok to point out the obvious – Palin can’t win – expect more conservatives to do so. Hell, she;s lost Jennifer Rubin too. She’s no longer Untouchable. You can like her, but that doesn’t mean you have to vote for her. Sorry, Sarah…
3. Contagion matters. Palin is tarnished goods at the moment. More than any other would-be candidate in the prospective field she needs to build an inevitability strategy. She lacks the chops to win a policy battle (or even the appearance of one) and needs instead the kind of whirlwind operation that whips up a storm in state after state. That requires massive enthusiasm and persuading people to ignore their suspicion that she cannot win a general election. Unfortunately that also creates a collective action problem for Palin: people might vote for her if they think other people will too. But they don’t think other people will and so they won’t either.
4. Where does she win? Iowa? Maybe. But she’s not building – at least not yet – the kind of organisation you need to thrive amidst the corn. And anyway Mike Huckabee might have the evangelical vote sewn-up already. New Hampshire? I don’t think so. That’s looking like Romneyland. That leaves South Carolina and win or bust in the Palmetto state. Not impossible, but hardly probable either. Nevada? Sure. But Nevada is fourth amongst the first four in terms of value.
5. What’s her ceiling? Name recognition is not a problem for the Blessed Sarah. How many people who don’t already support her will be encouraged to do so once the campaigning actually starts? She’s much more of a known-quantity than many of the other putative candidates. Intuitively, one supposes she must already be much closer to the ceiling of her support than some of the others. There’s less room for growth.
6. She’s not up to it. If you think she can win then you have to think Republican voters are rubes. They may like her style, they may admire her attitude and they may love the ease with which she can wind up Democrats but deep down they know she’s not done enough to show that she’s a serious politician. She’s had a lot of fun and made a lot of money since quitting as governor and that’s absolutely fine. But it’s not enough. In the end, it’s just tough to imagine her actually in the Oval Office. And that matters since it’s a basic credibility test any candidate must survive.
7. The Republican Party thinks it can win. GOP gains in the mid-terms were actually bad news for Palin’s presidential aspirations. The more Republicans think they have a real chance at winning the White House in 2012 the less likely they are to slect Palin as their candidate. She’s the long-shot, feel-good candidate you choose to fight a bonny fight in a hopeless cause; she’s not the girl you choose if you think Obama can actually be beaten. In the end, the GOP probably retains enough pragmatism to remember this.
UPDATE: See veteran Palin-watcher Jay Newton-Small for more.
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