We’re operating in or around the margin of error here, so we can’t be certain whether this is truly the result of the Budget – but it’s still striking that three polls in tomorrow’s papers have growing Tory leads. The ICM poll for the News of the World has the Tories up one to 39 percent, Labour down one to 31, and the Lib Dems on 19. YouGov’s daily tracker has the the Tories unchanged on 37 percent, Labour down one to 32, and the Lib Dems on 19. And Anthony Wells is reporting a BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday, which has the Tories on 37 percent, and Labour on 30 percent. So that’s Tory leads of 8 points, 5 points and 7 points, respectively. Enough to calm a few Tory nerves.
One of the most telling features of recent weeks has been just how major political stories – from scandals to pregnancies – have failed to move the polls. It will be intriguing to see whether the forthcoming spate of TV debates, starting with the Chancellors’ debate on Monday, will make a greater impact. They’re about as glitzy and as high-profile as politics gets, but my instinct remains that only a disastrous performance by any of the participants will really sway the public mind.
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