Obama’s Iran calculation

The New York Times reports this morning that President Bush rejected an Israeli request for bunker-busting bombs, refuelling capacity and over-flight rights that would have allowed it to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities. It is unclear whether the Israelis were actually planning a strike or whether they merely wanted to emphasise to the Americans that they would act if Washington would not.

Tehran’s rate of progress towards nuclear status means that Iran will probably be a nuclear power, or at least nuclear-ready, by the end of Obama’s first term unless action—whether military, diplomatic, or economic—is taken to stop it. The New York Times says that US covert-ops against Iran’s nuclear programme have been stepped up. But it appears that there is considerable scepticism within the intelligence community about how effective they can be.

We know from the campaign that Obama is prepared to engage in direct diplomacy with Tehran. The earlier he does this, the more serious it will suggest that he is about addressing this challenge as all diplomatic options will have to be exhausted—and seen to be exhausted—before other methods become acceptable to public and international opinion. This report reminds us that if American will not deal with it, the Israelis might—understandably given the threats that Iran has made against Israel—take matters into their own hands.