The mood here in Manchester is odd. No one expects a move against Brown this week but most people expect that this will be Brown’s last conference as leader. Talking to folk on the left, it seems that the one thing that could save him with the Labour party is him tacking hard to the left in the coming days.
At the same time, no one is quite sure who will succeed him; it really is all to play for. David Miliband doesn’t seem prime ministerial yet. Last night he was at the excellent New Statesman party–he could be seen in a corner briefing some of the most influential commentators on the left—but there was no presence, no sense of awe that surrounded him. I suspect that most people in the room were unaware he was there.
Harriet Harman’s stock is rapidly rising. She turned in what the Labour selectorate will have seen as an impressive performance on Adam Boluton’s show this morning. She is positioning herself perfectly for a run as the loyalist, centre ground candidate if Gordon is deposed.
Cruddas is now part of the conversation. But there remain doubts about how much he wants it and whether he can make the leap from backbencher to credible candidate.
Worryingly for Brown, the leadership conversation is now in two parts. The first is should Gordon go. The second is who should succeed him. On Marr this morning, Brown repeatedly said that he wanted to turn the next election from a referendum on this government into a choice between Labour and the Tories. But if he is to survive until the next election, he needs to change the Labour leadership question from being a referendum on him into a choice between him and a set of candidates who all have their flaws.
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