As the Blair memo shows us today, the grinning charlatan had the right idea. He stayed too long, and as a result his own popularity was destroyed. But he knew how to fight the Tories. If his “trust schools” idea had not been torn to shreds by Labour rebels (who were directed by Brown), Michael Gove would not have an education policy. If Blair had kept his nerve with welfare reform in 1998, then he would have used the boom years to do what Chris Grayling will do in office – and the Tories would not have a welfare policy. The Blairites knew (after 2001) that the country wants more power in their own hands (over health, education and, yes, tax) not a Great Helsman to lead them into a new direction.
As Peter Oborne observed many years ago, fundamentally Blair believes in the market. Fundamentally, Brown believes in the state. Once in power, Brown ceded the “choice” agenda to the Tories, who are basically pledging to do what Blair lacked the nerve, or – latterly – the authority to do. But the agenda is essentially the same. To this day, I have huge respect for the Blairites and agree with many of their ideas: from Julian Le Grand to Alan Milburn. I also think their agenda will live on, laundered by Policy Exchange and with a blue rosette stuck on it.
It must really pain Blair to see Cameron getting accolades for pledging what he will see as half-understood Blairite ideas. But I have to say, it serves Blair right for letting Brown bully his way to the top. Blair’s big mistake in his ten years was to be intimidated by Brown. He should have sacked him, long ago – he’d have a healthier economy and we’d all be better off. I know that many around him were, even in February 2007, saying “you have to back someone else, Brown will destroy everything”. But even then, he was too scared of Brown – and too wary of confrontation – to do this.
A Blairite Cabinet member recently told me that Blair was brilliant at ideas, “even being driven around in his bullet-proof Jaguar, he had a better idea for what the average British voter wants than Brown could learn from a thousand focus groups”. I’d agree with that. But my dinner guest went on to say “he was great at ideas, but not at implementation.” Brown was dreadful at ideas, but implemented his very bad ideas very well. It’s no use having the right ideas, as Blair generally did, if you can’t implement them.
So while I sympathise with the frustration shown by his memo, I have to say it serves Blair right. He could have stopped Brown, if he’d really put his mind to it. Instead, he chose the easy option and the rest is history.
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