The Irish no vote provides the Tories with a golden opportunity to make Gordon Brown’s trustworthiness the defining political issue of the summer. Brown stood in 2005 on a manifesto that promised a vote on the European Constitution he then reneged on that promise; the Lisbon Treaty is nowhere near different enough from the constitution to justify going back on that manifesto commitment. When Brown did this he was popular enough to ride out the ensuing storm. Now, the situation is very different.
David Cameron’s statement on Friday night was strong, accusing the government of the “height of arrogance” for pushing on with ratification. But on Wednesday when the House of Lords will probably pass the Lisbon Treaty on third reading, Cameron should come out and accuse Brown of perpetrating a fraud against the public. He should borrow a line from Brown and declare that “There is nothing the Prime Minister could say to the electorate now that it would ever believe.”
The beauty of this issue for the Tories is that it allows then to gee up their base by making Europe a major issue without being accused of ‘banging on about Europe’. It allows them to tap into the current anti-politics mood, defined by its distrust of conventional politicians. At the same time, it gives them a chance of flipping the politics of Labour’s probable refusal to field a candidate in the Haltemprice & Howden by-election.
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