Polls show that the Tories might have won an autumn election

The details of the YouGov / Sunday Times poll show just how dangerous a November election would have been for Labour. The Tories are ahead 41 to 38, but amongst those certain to vote their lead rises to 45-36: very close to the ten point advantage they need for a working majority. The Tories also lead by significant margins—10 and 20 points, respectively—on what would have been the two most important issues for voters in a November election, crime and immigration.  While the Tories also hold a very narrow lead on who would be most likely to raise people’s standard of living.

There are good numbers in the poll for Brown. He leads Cameron 40 to 17% on strength, 39 to 26% on trustworthiness and 27 to 6% on being good in a crisis. Yet, one has to imagine that these numbers will take a hit following the events of yesterday.