Is Lords reform heading for a slow or quick death?

At the end of last week, Number 10 was optimistic that it and the whips were having some success in limiting the rebellion on the Lords. Some were even suggesting that the vote on the programme motion was winnable, after all. But that feeling has evaporated this morning. First, the weekend ring round by various senior figures did not meet with great success. Second, the ‘dear colleague’ letter signed by 74 MPs means that the programme motion is now pretty much certain to be defeated. Indeed, the rebels number considerably more than 74 when you include the PPSs who are planning to vote against it, the backbench opponents trying to fly under the radar and the Chairman of the 1922 Committee Graham Brady, who is also opposed but has not signed the letter. 

I understand that there will now be no great personal efforts from David Cameron to win rebels round. Instead, minds are moving onto what happens once the programme is defeated. There is a general sense that if the programme is lost, then the bill is dead. But the question is whether it is killed off quickly or not. If the Lib Dems insist on dragging the death spiral out, then it will be hugely destabilising for the coalition.

If the programme is lost, Nick Clegg will come under huge pressure from his own side. Lib Dems will complain that Lords reform is the coalition agreement and that Cameron should have delivered his MPs. If they start demanding retribution — the dropping of the new boundaries and the like – then the coalition could end up moving to confidence and supply earlier than expected.