Parents of children under two now pay on average over £5000 a year on childcare, with costs increasing much faster than either earnings or inflation. In response, both the government and Labour have launched Childcare Commissions as vehicles for developing new ideas. Ministers have today asked for the views of ‘everyday experts’ –- parents, childminders and nursery owners –- in a consultation period lasting until the end of August.
So far, so unspectacular. But there are a couple of reasons to think that childcare -– traditionally a second or third tier issue -– could become a key political battleground between now and 2015.
First, electoral maths. Those struggling with high childcare costs are precisely those mainstream working families, often without a strong party allegiance, who will decide the next election. Childcare has the potential to help underpin a broad coalition of low and middle income voters, with a huge premium for the party seen as most on the side of work, modern family life and children’s life chances.
For the Tories, a positive offer on childcare would show they understand the concerns of the so-called ‘striving classes’, while for Labour it could provide a tangible ‘pledge card’ offer that is pro-family, pro-employment and likely to generate long term fiscal benefits.
Second, ideological distinctions. While there is now a consensus that ‘something must be done’ on childcare, the different options in play speak to real cleavages in philosophical outlook and political priority. The potential outlines of a Conservative’s agenda were recently sketched by the thoughtful backbencher Liz Truss, who has argued for deregulation (aimed at increasing childminder numbers in particular) and a funding model that puts cash in the hands of parents. There are fears that such an approach would undermine quality and inhibit the development of sustainable provision.
Following a recent visit to Copenhagen, Liam Byrne, the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, has hinted at a different vision. Denmark has built up a high quality childcare system over the last half century on the basis of public funding for centre-based care, staffed by graduate professionals, with costs to parents capped (now at around £250 month).
The tough question for Labour, of course, is how it might pay for advancing towards such a system. Might it be prepared, for instance, to argue for a shift away from cash benefits to fund it? Child Benefit in Denmark is worth broadly the same to parents as in the UK, but there is no equivalent to Child Tax Credit, which accounts for over £15bn a year of public spending.
As each of the parties begin to show their hand on childcare over the coming months we will learn a lot about their governing instincts. And there is a big electoral prize on offer if they can catch parents’ imagination with their plans.
Graeme Cooke is Associate Director of IPPR.
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