Boris’s biggest challenge

Every campaign has a wobble — and Boris Johnson is getting his in early. A mix of complacency (he felt confident enough to allow his campaign fixer, James Wharton, to catch up on his other commitments) and the drama at his partner’s flat have combined to put him on the back foot. To compound matters, Jeremy Hunt has gone on the offensive. It’s starting to resemble an actual contest.

Or it might, if there were really any serious prospect of him losing. As one veteran of Tory leadership contests puts it: ‘The members are still behind Boris. It is Brexit, Brexit, Brexit.’ This Tory argues that when the Brexit-backing members hear the attacks on Boris Johnson, they assume it is as much about stopping Britain leaving the EU as anything else. Their instinct is to defend him.

The biggest challenge for Boris Johnson is not winning this contest; it is working out both a governing strategy and an electoral one. Johnson has enough advantages in this contest to weather a few missteps. Once he gets through the door of No. 10, though, he’ll have next to no room for error.

Johnson may even face a no-confidence vote as soon as he becomes prime minister. I understand that an influential figure on his campaign team has urged him not to carry out a reshuffle until he has got over that hurdle. A no-confidence vote when the government’s working majority is just five is not the time to have a bunch of people who have just been sacked sulking on the backbenches.

When it comes to the next cabinet, the Johnson team is determined to restore proper, collective responsibility: everyone who serves in it must be prepared to accept the Boris Johnson position that the UK is leaving the EU on 31 October with or without a deal.