James Forsyth reviews the week in politics
When William Hague put on his masterful performance at the Dispatch Box last year, imagining how Gordon Brown would feel as President Blair’s motorcade pulled into Downing Street, it seemed the funniest thing in the world to the Tories. But the last laugh may yet be on them. The idea of President Blair is now featuring in their own nightmares — especially given how unpopular David Cameron expects to be after the first year of his cuts agenda. One Tory elder is warning friends: within 18 months, Blair may yet again be the most popular politician in Britain.
A Blair EU presidency is not (yet) regarded as probable, but the prospect already has Westminster in a fluster. Brown’s Downing Street is throwing what diplomatic weight it has behind him as the Tories do the opposite. Those Cabinet ministers unofficially running the Blair campaign are urgently advising him to move out of ‘come and get me’ mode and start actively campaigning for the job.
Some Labour backbenchers are furious at the prospect of the man they forced out swanning unelected into the job of president; others are taking Hague-style delight in imagining Mr Cameron’s discomfiture. Think of the young Tory Prime Minister trying to compete on the international stage with the most famous British politician in the world.
The Conservatives still have something of a Blair complex. Gordon Brown is fairly easy to despise, as opinion polls indicate. But even now the Conservatives live in awe of Blair, knowing that he — like Thatcher — was never defeated at the ballot box. There is a near-obsession with persuading a Blairite — whether it be James Purnell or Andrew Adonis — to defect. The leadership does not think the party will be safe until it has absorbed Blairism into its DNA. To understand this, it is important to realise that many of those working in Cameron and Osborne’s office actually voted for Blair in general elections.
This explains the energy behind the Tory push to scupper Blair. It is a mark of admiration, not contempt. If the EU president, who will have no democratic mandate, were to be an unremarkable Belgian then the EU would struggle to assert itself on the world stage — and be held in low regard by the defiantly Eurosceptic British public. But Blair, an incurable thespian with a hunger for air miles, would transform the role by sheer force of personality.
Blair coming back as EU president may sound preposterous, but that is true for much of what the EU project does. One Brussels-watcher told me this week that he would put the chance of a Blair presidency ‘at less than 50 per cent, but not much less’. Not one person to whom I put this assessment disagreed. The Foreign Office is already making preparations, trying to position its own people to staff the offices of EU president and high representative.
The forces lining up against Blair are wide-ranging, motivated and varied. Blair is, after all, from a country that is a semi-detached member of the Union. On top of this, the small countries want a chairman of the Council of Ministers rather than a dynamic president. Belgium and Luxembourg’s opposition is hardened by the fact that Blair blocked their guys from getting top jobs when he was PM (which is, ironically, the reason Blair doesn’t want to campaign for it now — he may be vetoed, as he once vetoed).
Then we enter the initial-strewn world of European Parliament factions. Angela Merkel agrees with her MEPs that the presidency should go to someone from an EPP-aligned party to reflect the result of the European elections. My understanding is that she favours the Dutch Prime Minister, Jan Peter Balkenende, who is having coalition troubles at home. The Commission is also not keen on Blair, knowing that a charismatic president will drain power away from it. And even the man who set the whole Blair ball rolling — Nicolas Sarkozy — has backed off. My information is that Sarkozy has now grasped just how opposed the Tories are to a Blair presidency.
But if not Blair, then who? All the other candidates are almost comically small in global stature compared to the former Prime Minister. Balkenende might have formed four governments in Holland, but he is also a Harry Potter lookalike who has made deservedly little impact on the world stage. Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg Prime Minister, might be an expert horse-trader at European summits, but has he ever addressed a joint session of the US Congress? Would anyone turn up?
This all depends on the vanity of the EU. If it wants someone who can stand up to Putin, who will be listened to in the White House and who can — to use David Miliband’s awful example — stop traffic in world capitals (lording it over the little people is, of course, a central part of the Euro-enthusiasts’ vision), then there is no alternative to Blair. It is also rumoured that Wilfried Martens, the president of the EPP, is so angry with Cameron over him pulling the Tories out of the group that he might out of pure spite try to throw his group’s weight behind Blair.
A decision on the presidency could be taken as soon as a summit of European leaders starting on 12 November. If Blair gets the nod, we can expect Jonathan Powell, who has been touring Europe lobbying for Blair, to become chef de cabinet. In another reminder of Blair’s time in Downing Street, he will also have an uneasy relationship with his most important colleague, the high representative for foreign and security policy, who will not be happy at having a president who is such an overshadowing figure.
It would be nigh-on impossible for a Cameron government to ignore the European question with Blair popping up constantly to remind everyone of it. But equally, the Tories would have few options with Lisbon having already been ratified: they would not be able to secure any concessions or opt-outs without the agreement of all member states.
If Blair doesn’t get the job, then the Tories will feel like they have dodged a bullet and be inclined to see whatever follows in Europe post-Lisbon Treaty as really not that bad compared to the prospect of an Ode to Joy-humming Blair haunting their every move. A Blair-free Europe would be one that a relieved Cameron would be far less likely to interfere with. One wonders if this is why the wily Sarkozy floated the idea of President Blair in the first place.
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